United States Commission on National Security/21st Century

The United States Commission on National Security/21st Century (USCNS/21), also known as the Hart-Rudman Commission or Hart-Rudman Task Force on Homeland Security, was chartered by Secretary of Defense William Cohen in 1998 to provide a comprehensive review of US national security requirements in the 21st century. USCNS/21 was tasked "to analyze the emerging international security environment; to develop a US national security strategy appropriate to that environment; and to assess the various security institutions for their current relevance to the effective and efficient implementation of that strategy, and to recommend adjustments as necessary".

Released on 31 January 2001, USCNS/21 was the most exhaustive review of US national security strategy since the National Security Act of 1947. USCNS/21 was released in three distinct phases. The first phase, New World Coming: American Security in the 21st Century (see further below), anticipates the emerging international security environment within the first quarter of the 21st century and examines how the US fits into that environment. The second phase, Seeking a National Strategy: A Concert for Preserving Security and Promoting Freedom (see further below), proposes a new US national security strategy based on the anticipated threats and conditions outlined in the first phase report. The third phase, Roadmap for National Security: Imperative for Change (see further below), recommends changes to the US government's structure, legislation, and policy to reflect a new national security strategy based on the anticipated 21st century international security environment.

Mandate and members

Charter

According to the US Commission on National Security/21st Century Charter:

<blockquote>The Department of Defense recognizes that America should advance its position as a strong, secure, and persuasive force for freedom and progress in the world. Consequently, there is a requirement to:

conduct a comprehensive review of the early 21st century global security environment, including likely trends and potential 'wild cards';
develop a comprehensive overview of American strategic interests and objectives for the security environment we will likely encounter in the 21st century;
delineate a national security strategy appropriate to that environment and the nation's character;
identify a range of alternatives to implement the national security strategy, by defining the security goals for American society, and by describing the internal and external policy instruments required to apply American resources in the 21st century; and
develop a detailed plan to implement the range of alternatives by describing the sequence of measures necessary to attain the national security strategy, to include recommending concomitant changes to the national security apparatus as necessary.

A Commission, the U.S. Commission on National Security/21st Century (USCNS/21), will be established to fulfill this requirement, supported by a Study Group. Two individuals who have national recognition and significant depth of experience and public service will oversee the efforts of this Commission and serve as its Co-chairpersons. The study effort shall be conducted by a Study Group, composed of individuals who will be appointed as Department of Defense personnel. Based on the results of this study and the Commission's consideration thereof, the USCNS/21 will advance practical recommendations that the President of the United States, with the support of the Congress, could begin to implement in the Fiscal Year 2002 budget, if desired.</blockquote>

The Commission

Co-Chairs

thumb|right|Gary Hart

Gary Hart

thumb|right|Warren Rudman

Warren Bruce Rudman

Commissioners

Anne Armstrong
Norm R. Augustine
John Dancy
John R. Galvin
Leslie H. Gelb
Newt Gingrich
Lee H. Hamilton
Lionel H. Olmer
Donald B. Rice
James R. Schlesinger
Harry D. Train II
Andrew Jackson Young, Jr.

Executive Director

Charles G. Boyd

Deputy Executive Director

Arnold L. Punaro

Chief of Staff

Hank Scharpenberg

Study Group Coordinator and Study Group Member

Dr. Pat Pentland

Study Group Members

Dr. Jeffrey Bergner
Dr. Coit D. Blacker
Dr. Christopher J. Bowie
Dr. Ivo H. Daalder
Rhett Dawson
Amb. Charles W. Freeman, Jr.
Dr. Adam Garfinkle
Richard Haass
Keith Hahn
Dr. Charles B. Johnson
Robert Killebrew
Dr. Richard H. Kohn
Dr. William Lewis
James R. Locher III
Dr. Charles Moskos
Dr. Williamson Murray
Dr. Barry Ross Posen
Dr. Barbara Samuels
Dr. James S. Thomason
Ruth Wedgwood
Francis G. Hoffman

Phase I report – New World Coming: American Security in the 21st Century

New World Coming: American Security in the 21st Century was the first report completed by the Commission. Released on 15 September 1999, it attempts to provide a picture of the international security environment within the first quarter of the 21st century and the anticipated role of the US in that environment. The Commission anticipates an increasingly technologically, economically, and socially integrated world, i.e. increasing globalization amidst social and political fragmentation. The report provides twelve basic assumptions of that environment and fourteen conclusions based on those assumptions.

Assumptions

An economically strong United States is likely to remain a primary political, military, and cultural force through 2025, and will thus have a significant role in shaping the international environment.
The stability and direction of American society and politics will help shape US foreign policy goals and capacities, and hence the way the US may affect the global future.
Science and technology will continue to advance and become more widely available and utilized around the world, but their benefits will be less evenly distributed.
World energy supplies will remain largely based on fossil fuels.
While much of the world will experience economic growth, disparities in income will increase and widespread poverty will persist.
The international aspects of business and commerce (trade, transportation, telecommunications, investment and finance, manufacturing, and professional services) will continue to expand.
Non-governmental organizations (refugee aid organizations, religious and ethnic advocacy groups, environmental and other single-issue lobbies, international professional associations, and others) will continue to grow in importance, numbers, and in their international role.
Though it will raise important issues of sovereignty, the US will find in its national interest to work with and strengthen a variety of international organizations.
The US will remain the principal military power in the world.
Weapons of mass destruction (nuclear, chemical, and biological) and weapons of mass disruption (information warfare) will continue to proliferate to a wider range of state and non-state actors. Maintenance of a robust nuclear deterrent therefore remains essential as well as investment in new forms of defense against these threats.
We should expect conflicts in which adversaries, because of cultural affinities different from our own, will resort to forms and levels of violence shocking to our sensibilities.
As the US confronts a variety of complex threats, it will often be dependent on allies; but it will find reliable alliances more difficult to establish and sustain.</blockquote>

Conclusions

America will become increasingly vulnerable to hostile attack on our homeland, and our military superiority will not help us.
Rapid advances in information and biotechnologies will create new vulnerabilities for US security.
New technologies will divide the world as well as draw it together.
The national security of all advanced states will be increasingly affected by the vulnerabilities of the evolving global economic infrastructure.
Energy will continue to have major strategic significance.
All borders will be more porous; some will bend and some will break.
The sovereignty of states will come under pressure, but will endure.
Fragmentation or failure of states will occur, with destabilizing effects on neighboring states.
Foreign crises will be replete with atrocities and the deliberate terrorizing of civilian populations.
Space will become a critical and competitive military environment.
The essence of war will not change.
US intelligence will face more challenging adversaries, and even excellent intelligence will not prevent all surprises.
The US will be called upon frequently to intervene militarily in a time of uncertain alliances and with the prospect of fewer forward deployed forces.
The emerging security environment in the next quarter century will require different military and other national capabilities.</blockquote>

Phase II report – Seeking a National Strategy: A Concert for Preserving Security and Promoting Freedom

Released on 15 April 2000, Seeking a National Strategy: A Concert for Preserving Security and Promoting Freedom proposes a new national security strategy based on the anticipated 21st century international security environment. The new strategy must consider how to minimize the potential destabilizing effects of the contradictory trends of globalization and political fragmentation while promoting US interests and values worldwide.

Strategic considerations

In developing this new strategy, the Commission suggests a number of strategic considerations:

Strategy and policy must be grounded in the national interest.
The maintenance of America's strength is a long-term commitment and cannot be assured without conscious, dedicated effort.
The US faces unprecedented opportunities as well as dangers in the new era.
The US must find new ways to join with other capable and like-minded nations.
This nation must set priorities and apply them consistently.
America must never forget that it stands for certain principles, most importantly freedom under the rule of law. </blockquote>

Suggested categorization of US national interests

Building on these considerations, the Commission suggests categorizing US national interests into three categories: survival, critical, and significant. Survival interests are defined as, "without which America would cease to exist as we know it". These interests encompass safety from direct attacks by hostile states and terrorists through the use of weapons of mass destruction. They also include preserving America's founding principles as outlined in the US Constitution. Critical interests are defined as, "causally one step removed from survival interests". The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and terrorism will be the gravest threat to US national security in the 21st century. These threats must be taken seriously and the highest priority must be given to prevention and deterrence from such attacks.

"Maintain social cohesion, economic competitiveness, technological ingenuity, and military strength". The US must re-focus on education, specifically in the sciences, to ensure its technological dominance in the 21st century. Furthermore, the US must reduce its dependence on fossil fuels and investigate other energy alternatives.
"Assist the integration of key major powers, especially China, Russia, and India, into the mainstream of the emerging international system". The US, along with the G7, must successfully manage the effects, both positive and negative, of globalization on the world stage.
"Adapt US alliances and other regional mechanisms to a new era in which America's partners seek greater autonomy and responsibility". The US must maintain its current alliances and relationships with other nations as a mechanism to preserve and foster international peace and security.
"Help the international community tame the disintegrative forces spawned by an era of change". The US must work with the international community to address and manage the problem of failed states.

Phase III report – Roadmap for National Security: Imperative for Change

Released on 31 January 2001, Roadmap for National Security: Imperative for Change suggests "significant changes must be made in the structures and processes of the US national security apparatus". The Commission believes that without these reforms, "American power and influence cannot be sustained". Five key areas are highlighted for reform, followed by the Commissions specific recommendations for each area.

Recommendations

ensuring the security of the American homeland
recapitalizing America's strengths in science and education
redesigning key institutions of the Executive Branch
overhauling the US government personnel system
reorganizing Congress's role in national security affairs
"that the National Guard be given homeland security as a primary mission, as the US Constitution itself ordains" The Commission urges Congress to expand its understanding of national security matters, and streamline the appropriations and authorizations committees to make intelligence and security related legislation more efficient and effective. The Commission also recommends:

thumb|right|Structure of the Department of State, February 2001

thumb|right|Proposed restructuring of the Department of State, February 2001

that "the President personally guide a top-down strategic planning process and that process should be linked to the allocation of resources throughout the government"
"that the Secretary of the Treasury be named a statutory member of the National Security Council"
that "the Secretary of Defense should establish a ten-year goal of reducing infrastructure costs by 20-25 percent through steps to consolidate, restructure, outsource, and privatize many Department of Defense support agencies and activities as possible"
"that the intelligence community should emphasize the recruitment of human intelligence sources on terrorism as one of the intelligence community's highest priorities" and "the community should place new emphasis on collection and analysis of economic and science/technology security concerns, and incorporate more open source intelligence into its analytical products"