Robin Dale Hanson (born August 28, 1959) is an American economist and author. He is associate professor of economics at George Mason University and a former research associate at the Future of Humanity Institute of Oxford University. Hanson is known for his work on idea futures and markets, and he was involved in the creation of the Foresight Institute's Foresight Exchange and DARPA's FutureMAP project. He invented market scoring rules like LMSR (Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule) used by prediction markets such as Consensus Point (where Hanson was Chief Scientist), and has conducted research on signalling. He also proposed the Great Filter hypothesis.

Background

Hanson received a BS in physics from the University of California, Irvine in 1981, an MS in physics and an MA in Conceptual Foundations of Science from the University of Chicago in 1984, and a PhD in social science from Caltech in 1997 for his thesis titled Four puzzles in information and politics: Product bans, informed voters, social insurance, and persistent disagreement. Before getting his PhD he researched artificial intelligence, Bayesian statistics and hypertext publishing at Lockheed, NASA, and elsewhere. In addition, he started the first internal corporate prediction market at Xanadu in 1990.

He is married to Peggy Jackson, a hospice social worker, and has two children. He is the son of a Southern Baptist preacher. Hanson has elected to have his brain cryonically preserved in the event of medical death.

Views

thumb|Robin Hanson discussing alternative economic-legal systems at the 2019 Institute of Cryptoanarchy Conference

Prediction markets

Robin Hanson is credited with originating the concept of the Policy Analysis Market (PAM),

Sex

In a controversial 2018 blog post on the incel movement, Hanson appeared to agree with the incel movement's likening of the distribution of job opportunities to "access to sex". He wrote that he found it puzzling that similar concern had not been shown for incels as for low-income individuals. Some journalists, such as Alexandra Scaggs in the Financial Times, criticized Hanson for discussing sex as if it was a commodity.

Hanson has been criticized for his writings relating to sexual relationships and women. "If you've ever heard of George Mason University economist Robin Hanson, there's a good chance it was because he wrote something creepy", Slate columnist Jordan Weissman wrote in 2018. In an article on bias against women in economics, Bloomberg columnist Noah Smith cited a blog post by Hanson comparing cuckoldry to "gentle silent rape", lamenting that there was no retraction and no outcry from fellow economists. In The New Yorker, Jia Tolentino described Hanson's blog post as a "flippantly dehumanizing thought experiment".

thumb|left|Robin Hanson discussing prediction markets at the 2023 Manifest conference

Cryonics

Hanson is an advocate for cryonics and a member of the Alcor Life Extension Foundation, a cryonics organization that preserves corpses with the goal of later resurrecting them. concerns his views on brain emulation and its eventual impact on society. The Elephant in the Brain (2018), coauthored with Kevin Simler, looks at mental blind spots of society and individuals.

References

  • Overcoming Bias (Hanson's blog)
  • GMU Page
  • Bloggingheads.tv: interviews on Costly Truth-Seeking and The Economics of Artificial Intelligence (video & audio)
  • NoDoom – Hanson's critique of the Doomsday argument
  • Malthus v. the Singularity NY Times' John Tierney discusses Hanson's paper on the technological singularity