( , , ; plural: ; ) is an Italian word neologised in the fifteenth century at least, used internationally in many languages to describe a Catholic man—in practice, always a cardinal—who is thought of as a likely or possible candidate to be elected pope by the College of Cardinals. The term has been popularised by Vaticanologists.
In some cases, cardinals who were considered were elected pope. Among them are Eugenio Pacelli (Pius XII) in 1939, Giovanni Battista Montini (Paul VI) in 1963, Joseph Ratzinger (Benedict XVI) in 2005, Jorge Mario Bergoglio (Francis) in 2013, and Robert Francis Prevost (Leo XIV) in 2025.
At times, however, the college have elected candidates not considered by most Vatican watchers. In recent years, these have included Angelo Roncalli (John XXIII) in 1958, Albino Luciani (John Paul I) in August 1978, and Karol Wojtyła (John Paul II) in October 1978. From this is derived a famous proverb: "He who enters the conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal".
The list of changes as cardinals age. For instance, Carlo Maria Martini was thought to be until he retired from his see upon reaching 75 years of age in 2002.
Terminology
The term is at least as old as the fifteenth century, since it is found in the .
In Italian, the word is also used in non-ecclesiastical contexts, particularly as slang. This includes usage in reference to short list candidates, i.e. those who, among the available candidates, are most likely to get elected or appointed to a specific position.
elected pope
- Francesco Castiglioni (elected as Pius VIII in 1829) was at both the 1823 conclave and at the 1829 conclave. During his lifetime, Pope Pius VII referred to Castiglioni as "Pope Pius VIII". The majority of the cardinals who headed to Rome for this conclave had already decided to support Pecci who was Camerlengo. Pecci was also perceived to be the opposite of the recently deceased Pius IX.
- Eugenio Pacelli (elected as Pius XII in 1939). Prior to his death, Pope Pius XI strongly hinted that he favoured Pacelli as his successor. He had previously been quoted as saying: "When today the Pope dies, you'll get another one tomorrow, because the Church continues. It would be a much bigger tragedy, if Cardinal Pacelli dies, because there is only one. I pray every day, God may send another one into one of our seminaries, but as of today, there is only one in this world."
- Giovanni Battista Montini (elected as Paul VI in 1963). Montini had been discussed as a candidate in the 1958 conclave despite not having been a cardinal at the time; Giuseppe Siri reacted with horror that a non-cardinal would even be considered. It was also rumoured some of the French cardinals voted in favor of Montini during that conclave. John XXIII had sent vague signals during his reign that he believed his friend Montini (whom he made a cardinal) would be his successor.
- Joseph Ratzinger (elected as Benedict XVI in 2005). On 2 January 2005, Time magazine quoted unnamed Vatican sources as saying that Ratzinger (then serving as Prefect for the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith) was a front runner to succeed John Paul II should he die or become too ill to continue as pope. Upon the death of John Paul II, the Financial Times gave the odds of Ratzinger becoming pope as 7–1, the lead position but close to his rivals on the liberal wing of the church. In April 2005, before his election as pope, he was identified as one of the 100 most influential people in the world by Time. At the conclave, a sentiment was: "it was, if not Ratzinger, who? And as they came to know him, the question became, why not Ratzinger?" On 19 April 2005, he was elected on the second day after four ballots. Bergoglio was a at the 2005 conclave and was also considered a contender at the 2013 conclave Though considered a dark horse candidate, Prevost was a prominent papabile for North America for the 2025 papal conclave. He is the first pontiff coming from North America and the first pope born in the United States.
not elected
Being seen as is no guarantee of election, and is sometimes seen as a handicap. (Although the following candidates were widely discussed as candidates publicly, the actual vote results described below are frequently based on rumours and sourced, if at all, from off-the-record reports of individual cardinals.)
- Mariano Rampolla, Leo XIII's Cardinal Secretary of State, was headed for victory in the 1903 conclave, only to be vetoed by Jan Puzyna de Kosielsko, Archbishop of Kraków, on behalf of Austro-Hungarian Emperor Franz Joseph I. With Rampolla blocked, Giuseppe Sarto was elected and became Pius X. One of Pius X's first acts was to abolish the rights of Catholic monarchs to veto.