thumb|right|270px|Peasants preparing the fields next to the medieval [[Louvre Castle for the winter with a harrow and sowing for the winter grain, from The Very Rich Hours of the Duke of Berry, ]]

Medieval demography is the study of human demography in Europe and the Mediterranean during the Middle Ages. It estimates and seeks to explain the number of people who were alive during the Medieval period, population trends, life expectancy, family structure, and related issues. Demography is considered a crucial element of historical change throughout the Middle Ages.

The population of Europe remained at a low level in the Early Middle Ages, boomed during the High Middle Ages and reached a peak around 1300, then a number of calamities caused a steep decline, the nature of which historians have debated. Population levels began to recover around the late 15th century, gaining momentum in the early 16th century.

The science of medieval demography relies on various lines of evidence, such as administrative records, wills and other types of records, archaeological field data, economic data, and written histories. Because the data are often incomplete and/or ambiguous, there can be significant disagreement among medieval demographers.

Demographic history of Europe

The population levels of Europe during the Middle Ages can be roughly categorized: During the period from 150 to 400, with the intermittent appearance of plague, the population of the Roman Empire ranged from a high of 70 to a low of 50 million, followed by a fairly good recovery if not to the previous highs of the Early Empire. Serious gradual depopulation began in the West only in the 5th century and in the East due to the appearance of bubonic plague in 541 after 250 years of economic growth after the troubles which afflicted the empire from the 250s to 270s. Proximate causes of the population decrease include the Antonine Plague (165–180), the Plague of Cyprian (250 to 260), and the Crisis of the Third Century. European population probably reached a minimum during the extreme weather events of 535–536 and the ensuing Plague of Justinian (541–542). Some have connected this demographic transition to the Migration Period Pessimum, when a decrease in global temperatures impaired agricultural yields.

Early Middle Ages

A major plague epidemic struck the Mediterranean, and much of Europe, in the 6th century.

The Early Middle Ages saw relatively little population growth with urbanization well below its Roman peak, reflecting a low technological level, limited trade and political, social and economic dislocation exacerbated by the impact of Viking expansion in the north, Arab expansion in the south and the movement of Slavs and Bulgarians, and later the Magyars in the east.

Manorial surveys and some allusions to provincial hearth taxes suggest a population of 5 million for Carolingian France. Presumed densities of settlement support estimates of 4 million for Italy and a similar number for Iberia, as well as German lands (including Scandinavia); 6 million for Slavic lands and perhaps 2 million for Greece and southern Balkans; 1.5 million people for the entire British Isles.

High Middle Ages

thumb|upright=1.3|German [[Ostsiedlung|eastward expansion, 895—1400]]

In the 10th–13th centuries, agriculture expanded into the wilderness, in what has been termed the "great clearances".

Reasons for this expansion and colonization include an improving climate known as the Medieval warm period, which resulted in longer and more productive growing seasons; the end of the raids by Vikings, Arabs, and Magyars, resulting in greater political stability; advancements in medieval technology allowing more land to be farmed; 11th-century reforms of the Church that further increased social stability; and the rise of Feudalism, which also brought a measure of social stability. and is estimated to have reached a peak of 73.5 million to as high as 100 million, which is substantially higher than the population of the Roman Empire at its peak.

  • England – The population of England, between 1.25 and 2 million in 1086, is estimated to have grown to somewhere between 3.7 million and 5–7 million, By 1300, the population of the entire province of Tuscany may have then surpassed 2 million people — a level the region would not reach again until after 1850.
  • France – In 1328, France is believed to have supported between 15 and 17 million people (in a smaller geographical area than today's) and 20 million people (in the present-day area), the latter not reached again until the early modern period.
  • Kingdom of Hungary – The population of the Carpathian Basin probably did not exceed 1 million at the beginning of the 12th century and it may have been between one and two million before the Mongol (Tatar) invasion of 1240. The extent of destruction is reflected in low population growth in the subsequent period. Even in the early 14th century the population was only slightly higher, between 1.4 and 2.3 million. In the fourteenth century, under Angevin dynasty (1308-1386), the population of the Kingdom reached around 3 million, before the Plague. Transylvania, in the eastern part of the Kingdom, had around 550.000 people by 1300.
  • Wallachia – The region in the Southern part of modern Romania had a population of around 400,000 in the fifteenth century.
  • Constantinople – In 1203 the population of Constantinople stood 400,000 to 500,000; when the Byzantines reclaimed the city in 1261 there were only about 35,000 inhabitants left. The population of the city stood between 40,000 and 50,000 by the 1450s. The number of people captured by the Ottomans after the fall of the city was around 33,000.

Late Middle Ages

thumb|upright=1.3|Citizens of [[Tournai bury plague victims.]]

By the 14th century, the frontiers of settled cultivation had ceased to expand and internal colonization was coming to an end, but population levels remained high. Then a series of events—sometimes called the Crisis of the Late Middle Ages—collectively killed millions. Starting with the Great Famine in 1315 and the Black Death from 1348, the population of Europe fell abruptly. The period between 1348 and 1420 saw the heaviest loss. In parts of Germany, about 40% of the named inhabitants disappeared. Feudal lords and landlords controlled most of Europe's land; they could charge high enough rents or demand a large enough percentage of peasants' profit that peasants on these lands were forced to survive at subsistence levels. With any surplus of food, labor, and income absorbed by the landowners, the peasants did not have enough capital to invest in their farms or enough incentive to increase the productivity of their land.

In addition, the small size of most peasants' farms inhibited centralized and more efficient cultivation of land on larger fields. In regions of Europe where primogeniture was less widely practiced, peasant lands were subdivided and re-subdivided with each generation of heirs; Brenner writes that consequently: "This too naturally reduced the general level of peasant income, the surplus available for potential investment in agriculture, and the slim hope of agricultural innovation."

Science and art of medieval demography

Sources traditionally used by modern demographers, such as marriage, birth and death records, are often not available for this period, so scholars rely on other sources, such as archaeological surveys, and written records when available.

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Major scholars on medieval demography

  • Thomas Robert Malthus – founder of demography centered the Malthusian model of economic history.
  • Michael Postan – prominent scholar of the Malthusian model of medieval demographics.
  • Robert Brenner – prominent scholar of the Marxist model of medieval demographics, centered on social class and economic structure instead of population growth alone.
  • Karl Julius Beloch
  • Fernand Braudel

See also

  • Historical demography
  • Classical demography
  • Early modern demography
  • Crisis of the Late Middle Ages
  • Dark Ages (historiography)
  • Life expectancy
  • List of famines
  • List of disasters
  • Little Ice Age
  • Medieval household
  • Migration Period
  • Slavery in medieval Europe

References

Bibliography

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Further reading

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