July Crisis - WikiHQ

thumb|The cartoon "Der Stänker" ("The Troublemaker", literally "The Stinker"), published in the German magazine [[Kladdellradatsch on 9 August 1914, portrays a personified Serbia as the instigator of the July Crisis|354x354px]]

The July Crisis was a series of interrelated diplomatic and military escalations among the major powers of Europe in mid-1914, which led to the outbreak of World War I. It began on 28 June 1914 when the Bosnian Serb nationalist Gavrilo Princip assassinated Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir presumptive to the Austro-Hungarian throne, and his wife Sophie, Duchess of Hohenberg. A complex web of alliances, coupled with the miscalculations of numerous political and military leaders (who either regarded war as in their best interests, or felt that a general war would not occur), resulted in an outbreak of hostilities amongst most of the major European states by early August 1914.

Following the assassination, Austria-Hungary sought to inflict a military blow on Serbia, to demonstrate its own strength and to dampen Serbian support for Yugoslav nationalism, viewing it as a threat to the unity of its multi-national empire. However, Vienna, wary of the reaction of Russia – a major supporter of Serbia – sought a guarantee from its ally, Germany, that Berlin would support Austria in any conflict. Germany guaranteed its support through what came to be known as the "blank cheque", but urged Austria-Hungary to attack quickly to localise the war and avoid drawing in Russia. However, Austro-Hungarian leaders would deliberate into mid-July before deciding to give Serbia a harsh ultimatum which Serbia was certain to reject, and would not attack without a full mobilisation of the army. In the meantime, France met with Russia, reaffirmed their alliance, and agreed they would support Serbia against Austria-Hungary in the event of a war.

Austria-Hungary made its ultimatum to Serbia on 23 July; Russia ordered secret, but noticed, preparations for the mobilisation of its armed forces. Although Russia's military leadership knew they were not strong enough for war, they believed that the Austro-Hungarian grievance against Serbia was a pretext orchestrated by Germany, and considered a forceful response as the best course of action. Russia's preparations — the first major military action not undertaken by a direct participant in the conflict between Austria-Hungary and Serbia, and which were construed at the time as a partial mobilization — increased the willingness of Serbia to defy the threat of an Austro-Hungarian attack; it also alarmed the German leadership, who had not anticipated the idea of needing to fight Russia before France.

While the United Kingdom was semi-formally aligned with Russia and France, many British leaders saw no compelling reason to get involved militarily; the UK made repeated offers to mediate, and Germany made various promises to try to ensure British neutrality. However, fearing the possibility of Germany overrunning France, Britain entered the war against them on 4 August, and used the German invasion of Belgium to galvanise popular support. By early August, the ostensible reason for armed conflict—the assassination of an Austro-Hungarian archduke—had already become a side-note to a larger European war.

Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand (28 June)

thumb|Illustration of the assassination in the Italian newspaper [[La Domenica del Corriere, 12 July 1914]]

At the Congress of Berlin that brought an end to the Russo-Turkish War in 1878, Austria-Hungary was given the right to occupy Ottoman Bosnia and Herzegovina while the status of the territory's sovereignty remained unchanged (with the Ottoman Empire). Thirty years later, Austria-Hungary formally annexed the territory, violating the Berlin treaty and upsetting the fragile balance of power in the Balkans, precipitating a diplomatic crisis. Sarajevo became the provincial capital and Oskar Potiorek, a military commander, became governor of the province. In the summer of 1914, Emperor Franz Joseph ordered Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir presumptive to the Austro-Hungarian throne, to attend military exercises due to be held in Bosnia. After the exercises, on 28 June, Ferdinand toured Sarajevo with his wife, Sophie. Six armed irredentists, five Bosnian Serbs and one Bosnian Muslim, coordinated by Danilo Ilić, seeking to free Bosnia of Austria-Hungarian rule and unite all Southern Slavs, lay in wait along Ferdinand's announced motorcade route.

At 10:10 a.m., Nedeljko Čabrinović threw a hand grenade at Ferdinand's motorcade damaging the following car and injuring its occupants. Later that morning, Gavrilo Princip managed to shoot and kill Franz Ferdinand and Sophie as they drove back to visit the wounded in the hospital. Čabrinović and Princip took cyanide, but it only sickened them. Both were arrested. Within 45 minutes of the shooting, Princip began telling his story to interrogators. The next day, based on the interrogations of the two assassins, Potiorek telegraphed Vienna to announce that Princip and Čabrinović had conspired in Belgrade with others to obtain bombs, revolvers, and money to kill the Archduke. A police dragnet quickly caught most of the conspirators.

Investigation and accusations

thumb|The accused in court. Front row, from left: 1. [[Trifko Grabež, 2. Nedeljko Čabrinović, 3. Gavrilo Princip, 4. Danilo Ilić, 5. Miško Jovanović.]]

Immediately following the assassinations, Serbian envoy to France Milenko Vesnić and Serbian envoy to Russia Miroslav Spalajković put out statements claiming that Serbia had warned Austria-Hungary of the impending assassination. Serbia soon thereafter denied making warnings and denied knowledge of the plot. By 30 June, Austro-Hungarian and German diplomats were requesting investigations from their Serbian and Russian counterparts, but were rebuffed. On 5 July, based on interrogations of the accused assassins, Potiorek telegraphed Vienna that Serbian Major Voja Tankosić had directed the assassins. The next day, Austro-Hungarian chargé d'affaires Count Otto von Czernin proposed to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Sazonov that the instigators of the plot against Ferdinand needed to be investigated within Serbia, but he too was rebuffed.

Austria-Hungary immediately undertook a criminal investigation. Ilić and five of the assassins were promptly arrested and interviewed by an investigating judge. The three young Bosnian assassins who had travelled to Serbia stated that Tankosić had directly and indirectly supported them. In fact, Princip had received a few days of training and some weapons through renegade intelligence officers in Serbia and Mlada Bosna, the freedom fighting group to which Princip was primarily loyal, had members who came from all three major Bosnian ethnic groups. A total of twenty-five people were indicted as a result of the investigation, while the group was dominated by Bosnian Serbs, four of the indictees were Bosnian Croats, all of them were Austro-Hungarian citizens, none from Serbia.

Within Serbia, there was popular rejoicing over the assassination of Franz Ferdinand. Because Serbian elections were scheduled for 14 August, Prime Minister Nikola Pašić was unwilling to court unpopularity by being seen to bow down to Austria-Hungary. If he had actually warned the Austro-Hungarians in advance of the plot against Franz Ferdinand, Pašić was probably concerned about his chances at the polls and perhaps his life being endangered if such news leaked out.

Léon Descos, French Ambassador to Belgrade, on 1 July reported that a Serbian military party was involved in the assassination of Franz Ferdinand, that Serbia was in the wrong, and that Russian Ambassador Hartwig was in constant conversations with Regent Alexander to guide Serbia through this crisis. The "military party" was a reference to Chief of Serbian Military Intelligence, Dragutin Dimitrijević and the officers he led in the 1903 murder of the King and Queen of Serbia. Their acts led to the installation of the dynasty ruled by King Peter and Regent Alexander. Serbia requested and France arranged the replacement of Descos with the more hawkish who arrived on 25 July.

Austria-Hungary edges towards war with Serbia (29 June – 1 July)

thumb|Austro-Hungarian postcard made after the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand depicting an Austrian fist crushing an [[Untermensch|ape-like caricature of a Serbian holding a bomb and dropping a knife, and stating "Serbia <u>must</u> die!" (Sterben purposefully misspelled as sterbien to make it rhyme with Serbien.)]]

While few mourned Franz Ferdinand himself, many ministers argued the assassination of the heir to the throne was a challenge to Austria-Hungary that must be avenged. This was especially true of Foreign Minister Leopold Berchtold; in October 1913, his ultimatum to Serbia made them back down over the occupation of Northern Albania, which gave him confidence it would work again.

Members of the "War Party", like Conrad von Hötzendorf, Chief of the Austro-Hungarian General Staff, saw it as an opportunity to destroy Serbia's ability to interfere in Bosnia. Moreover, the Archduke, who had been a voice for peace in the previous years, had now been removed from the discussions. The assassination combined with existing instability in the Balkans sent deep shockwaves through the Austro-Hungarian elite. The murder has been described by historian Christopher Clark as a "9/11 effect, a terrorist event charged with historic meaning, transforming the political chemistry in Vienna".

Debate in Vienna

thumb|278x278px|Emperor Franz Joseph was 84 years old in 1914. Though disturbed by the murder of his heir and nephew, Franz Joseph largely left decision-making during the July Crisis to foreign minister [[Leopold Berchtold, army chief of staff Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf, and the other ministers.]]

Between 29 June to 1 July, Berchtold and Conrad debated an appropriate response to the events in Sarajevo; Conrad wanted to declare war on Serbia as soon as possible, stating: "If you have a poisonous adder at your heel, you stamp on its head, you don't wait for the bite."

Conrad continued to push for war, but worried what attitude Germany would take; Berchtold replied that he planned to inquire of Germany what its position was. Berchtold used his memo of 14 June 1914, proposing Serbia's destruction, as the basis for the document that would be used to solicit German support.

The German "Blank Cheque" (1–6 July)

German officials reassure Austria-Hungary of its support

thumb|294x294px|[[Wilhelm II, German Emperor|Wilhelm II of Germany was known for his impetuous personality, described by one scholar as "not lacking in intelligence, but he did lack stability, disguising his deep insecurities by swagger and tough talk."]]

On 1 July, Viktor Naumann, a German journalist and friend of German Foreign Secretary Gottlieb von Jagow, approached Berchtold's chief of cabinet, Alexander, Count of Hoyos. Naumann's advice was that it was time to annihilate Serbia and that Germany could be expected to stand by her ally. The next day, German Ambassador Heinrich von Tschirschky spoke to Emperor Franz Joseph and stated that it was his estimate that Emperor Wilhelm II would support resolute, well-thought-out action by Austria-Hungary with regard to Serbia.

On 2 July, the Saxon Ambassador in Berlin wrote back to his king that the German Army wanted Austria-Hungary to attack Serbia as quickly as possible because the time was right for a general war since Germany was more prepared for war than either Russia or France. On 3 July, the Saxon military attaché in Berlin reported that the German General Staff "would be pleased if war were to come about now".

Wilhelm II came to share the views of the German General Staff and declared on 4 July that he was entirely for "settling accounts with Serbia". He ordered the German ambassador in Vienna, Count Heinrich von Tschirschky, to stop advising restraint, writing that "Tschirschky will be so good to drop this nonsense. We must finish with the Serbs, quickly. Now or never!". In response, Tschirschky told the Austro-Hungarian government that next day that "Germany would support the Monarchy through thick and thin, whatever action it decided to take against Serbia. The sooner Austria-Hungary struck, the better". On 5 July 1914, Helmuth von Moltke, the Chief of the German General Staff, wrote that "Austria must beat the Serbs".

Hoyos visits Berlin (5–6 July)

upright=1.6|thumb|European diplomatic alignments before the war. Germany and the Ottoman Empire allied after the outbreak of war.

In order to ensure Germany's full support, Hoyos visited Berlin on 5 July. On 24 June, Austria-Hungary had prepared a letter for its ally outlining the challenges in the Balkans and how to address them, but Franz Ferdinand was assassinated before it could be delivered. According to the letter, Romania was no longer a reliable ally especially since the Russo-Romanian summit meeting of 14 June in Constanța. Russia was working toward an alliance of Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Greece, and Montenegro against Austria-Hungary, dismemberment of Austria-Hungary, and the movement of borders from east to west. To break up this effort, Germany and Austria-Hungary should first ally with Bulgaria and the Ottoman Empire. To this letter was added a post-script on the Sarajevo Outrage and its impact. Finally, Emperor Franz Joseph added his own letter to Emperor Wilhelm II which closed with advocating the end of Serbia as a political power factor.

Hoyos provided Austro-Hungarian Ambassador Count Ladislaus de Szögyény-Marich with two documents, one of which was a memo by Tisza, advising that Bulgaria should join the Triple Alliance, and another letter by Franz Joseph stating that the only way of preventing the disintegration of the Dual Monarchy was "to eliminate Serbia" as a state. The letter by Franz Joseph was based closely upon Berchtold's 14 June memo calling for the destruction of Serbia. Franz Joseph's letter explicitly stated that the decision for war against Serbia had been made before the assassination of the Archduke, and that the events of Sarajevo only confirmed the already pre-existing need for a war against Serbia.

After meeting with Szögyény on 5 July, the German Emperor informed him that his state could "count on Germany's full support", even if "grave European complications" ensued, and that Austria-Hungary "ought to march at once" against Serbia. He added that "in any case, as things stood today, Russia was not at all ready for war, and would certainly think long before appealing to arms". Even if Russia were to act in defence of Serbia, Wilhelm promised that Germany would do everything in its power, including war, to support Austria-Hungary. Wilhelm added that he needed to consult with Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann Hollweg, who he was quite sure would have a similar view.

After his meeting, Szögyény reported to Vienna that Wilhelm "would regret it if we [Austria-Hungary] let this present chance, which was so favourable for us, go by without utilising it". This so-called "blank cheque" of German support up to and including war was to be the main determining factor in Austro-Hungarian policy in July 1914.

At another meeting held on 5 July, this one at Potsdam palace, Bethmann Hollweg, the Foreign Ministry's Under Secretary of State Arthur Zimmermann, the Prussian Minister of War Erich von Falkenhayn, the head of the German Imperial Military Cabinet Moriz von Lyncker, the Adjutant general Hans von Plessen, Captain Hans Zenker of the Naval General Staff, and Admiral Eduard von Capelle of the Naval State Secretariat all endorsed Wilhelm's "blank cheque" as Germany's best policy. On 6 July, Hoyos, Zimmerman, Bethmann Hollweg, and Szögyény met and Germany gave its "blank cheque" commitment to Austria-Hungary of firm support.

On 6 July, Bethmann Hollweg and Zimmermann further repeated the promise of Wilhelm's "blank cheque" at a conference with Szögyény. Although Bethmann Hollweg stated that the decision for war or peace was in Austria's hands, he strongly advised that Austria-Hungary choose the former. That same day, British Foreign Secretary Edward Grey was warned by the German Ambassador in London, Prince Lichnowsky, of the dangerous situation in the Balkans. Grey felt that Anglo-German co-operation could resolve any Austro-Serbian dispute, and he "believed that a peaceful solution would be reached".

When asked if Germany was ready for a war against Russia and France, Falkenhayn replied with a "curt affirmative". Later on 17 July, the Army's Quartermaster general Count Waldersee wrote to Gottlieb von Jagow, Foreign Minister: "I can move at a moment's notice. We in the General Staff are ready: there is nothing more for us to do at this juncture".

As Wilhelm himself stated in private "in order not to alarm world opinion", the Kaiser left on his annual North Sea cruise. Shortly after, Wilhelm's close friend Gustav Krupp von Bohlen wrote that the Emperor said that we would not waver in declaring war if Russia mobilised. In the same way, Berchtold suggested that Austro-Hungarian leaders go on vacation "to prevent any disquiet" about what had been decided.

German thinking

Germany's policy was to support a swift war to destroy Serbia that would present a fait accompli to the world. Unlike the three earlier cases dating from 1912 when Austria-Hungary had asked for German diplomatic support for a war against Serbia, this time it was felt that political conditions for such a war now existed. At this time, the German military supported the idea of an Austro-Hungarian attack against Serbia as the best way of starting a general war, whereas Wilhelm believed that an armed conflict between Austria-Hungary and Serbia would be purely local. Austro-Hungarian policy based upon pre-existing plans to destroy Serbia involved not waiting to complete judicial inquiries to strike back immediately and not to strain its credibility in the coming weeks as it would become more and more clear that Austria-Hungary was not reacting to the assassination. Likewise, Germany wished to give the impression of its ignorance of Austro-Hungarian intentions.

The thinking was that, as Austria-Hungary was Germany's only ally, if its prestige was not restored then its position in the Balkans might be irreparably damaged, encouraging further irredentism by Serbia and Romania. The benefits were clear, but there were risks, namely that Russia would intervene and this would lead to a continental war. However, this was thought even more unlikely since the Russians had not yet finished their French-funded rearmament programme scheduled for completion in 1917. Moreover, they did not believe that Russia, as an absolute monarchy, would support regicides, and more broadly "the mood across Europe was so anti-Serbian that even Russia would not intervene". Personal factors also weighed heavily and the German Kaiser was close to the murdered Franz Ferdinand and was affected by his death, to the extent that German counsels of restraint vis-à-vis Serbia in 1913 changed to an aggressive stance.

On the other hand, the military thought that if Russia did intervene then St Petersburg clearly desired war and now would be a better time to fight, when Germany had a guaranteed ally in Austria-Hungary, Russia was not ready and Europe was sympathetic to them. On balance, at this point in the crisis, the Germans anticipated that their support would mean the war would be a localised affair between Austria-Hungary and Serbia. This would be particularly true if Austria-Hungary moved quickly, "while the other European powers were still disgusted over the assassinations and therefore likely to be sympathetic to any action Austria-Hungary took".

Austria-Hungary considers an ultimatum (7–23 July)

thumb|upright=2|Map of ethnic groups in Austria-Hungary in 1910. Austro-Hungarian leaders believed that [[irredentism by ethnic Croats and Serbs, abetted by their co-ethnics in Serbia, was an existential threat to the Empire.]]

On 7 July, the Council of Joint Ministers debated Austria-Hungary's course of action. The most hawkish on the Council considered a surprise attack on Serbia. Tisza persuaded the Council that demands should be placed on Serbia before mobilisation to provide a proper "juridical basis for a declaration of war".

Samuel R. Williamson Jr. has emphasised the role of Austria-Hungary in starting the war. Convinced Serbian nationalism and Russian Balkan ambitions were disintegrating the Empire, Austria-Hungary hoped for a limited war against Serbia and that strong German support would force Russia to keep out of the war and weaken its Balkan prestige.

At this stage in the crisis, the possibility of determined Russian support for Serbia, and its attendant risks, was never properly weighed up. The Austro-Hungarians remained fixated on Serbia but did not decide on their precise objectives other than war. Political scientist James Fearon argues from this episode that the Germans believed Russia were expressing greater verbal support for Serbia than they would actually provide, in order to pressure Germany and Austria-Hungary to accept some Russian demands in negotiation. Meanwhile, Berlin was downplaying its actual strong support for Vienna so as to not appear the aggressor, for that would alienate German socialists.

Austro-Hungarian ultimatum (23 July)

thumb|Ciganović and Tankosić, Point 7

The Austro-Hungarian ultimatum demanded that Serbia formally and publicly condemn the "dangerous propaganda" against Austria-Hungary, the ultimate aim of which, it claimed, is to "detach from the Monarchy territories belonging to it". Moreover, Belgrade should "suppress by every means this criminal and terrorist propaganda". Most European foreign ministries recognised that the ultimatum was formulated in terms so harsh that the Serbs would be unable to accept it. Additionally, Serbia was only given 48 hours to comply.

In addition, the Serbian government should

Suppress all publications that "incite hatred and contempt of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy" and are "directed against its territorial integrity".
Dissolve the Serbian nationalist organisation Narodna Odbrana ("The People's Defence") and all other such societies in Serbia.
Eliminate without delay from schoolbooks and public documents all "propaganda against Austria-Hungary".
Remove from the Serbian military and civil administration all officers and functionaries whose names the Austro-Hungarian government will provide.
Accept in Serbia "representatives of the Austro-Hungarian Government" for the "suppression of subversive movements".
Bring to trial all accessories to the Archduke's assassination and allow "Austro-Hungarian delegates" (law enforcement officers) to take part in the investigations.
Arrest Major Vojislav Tankosić and civil servant Milan Ciganović, who were named as participants in the assassination plot.
Cease the cooperation of the Serbian authorities in the "traffic in arms and explosives across the frontier"; dismiss and punish the officials of Šabac and Loznica frontier service, "guilty of having assisted the perpetrators of the Sarajevo crime".
Provide "explanations" to the Austro-Hungarian government regarding "Serbian officials" who have expressed themselves in interviews "in terms of hostility to the Austro-Hungarian Government".
Notify the Austro-Hungarian Government "without delay" of the execution of the measures comprised in the ultimatum.

The Austro-Hungarian government, concluding the document, was expecting the reply of the Serbian government at the latest by 6 o'clock on Saturday evening, 25 July 1914. An appendix listed various details from "the crime investigation undertaken at court in Sarajevo against Gavrilo Princip and his comrades on account of the assassination", which allegedly demonstrated the culpability and assistance provided to the conspirators by various Serbian officials.

Despite the fact that it had no alliance with Serbia, the Council agreed to a secret partial mobilisation of over one million men of the Russian Army and the Baltic and Black Sea Fleets. It is worth stressing, since this is a cause of some confusion in general narratives of the war, that this was done prior to the Serbian rejection of the ultimatum, the Austro-Hungary declaration of war on 28 July or any military measures taken by Germany. As a diplomatic move this had limited value since the Russians did not make this mobilisation public until 28 July.

Russian thinking

The arguments used to support this move in the Council of Ministers were:

The crisis was being used as a pretext by the Germans to increase their power.
Acceptance of the ultimatum would mean that Serbia would become a protectorate of Austria-Hungary.
Russia had backed down in the past —for example in the Liman von Sanders affair and the Bosnian Crisis—and this had encouraged the Germans rather than appeased them.
Russian arms had recovered sufficiently since the disasters of 1904–06.

Cristopher Clark claimed that Sazonov believed that war was inevitable and that he refused to acknowledge that Austria-Hungary had a right to counter measures in the face of Serbian irredentism. He further claimed that Sazonov had aligned himself with the irredentism, and expected the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. However, Sazonov had in fact advised Serbia to offer as little resistance to the Austrian ultimatum. France had provided their clear support for their Russian allies for a robust response in their recent state visit just days before. Also in the background was Russian anxiety of the future of the Turkish straits—"where Russian control of the Balkans would place Saint Petersburg in a far better position to prevent unwanted intrusions on the Bosphorus”.

Russian policy was to pressure the Serbs to accept the ultimatum as much as possible without being humiliated too much. Russia was anxious to avoid a war because the Great Military Programme was not to be completed until 1917, and Russia was otherwise not ready for war. Because all of France's leaders, including Poincaré and Viviani, were at sea on the battleship France, returning from the summit in St. Petersburg, the acting head of the French government, Jean-Baptiste Bienvenu-Martin took no line on the ultimatum. In addition, the Germans jammed the radio messages, at least garbling contacts between the ship-borne French leaders and Paris, and possibly blocking them completely.

Diplomatic maneuvering to avoid or localise war (26 July)

On 25 July, Grey suggested again that Germany inform Austria-Hungary that the Serbian reply to the Austro-Hungarian ultimatum was "satisfactory". Jagow passed on Grey's offer to Vienna without comment. The same day, Jagow told reporter Theodor Wolff that in his opinion "neither London, nor Paris, nor St. Petersburg wants a war". On the same day, Russia announced that it could not remain "uninterested" if Austria-Hungary attacked Serbia. Both the French and Russian ambassadors rejected four-power mediation, and instead proposed direct talks between Belgrade and Vienna. Jagow accepted the Franco-Russian offer as it offered the best chance to sever Britain from France and Russia. In his talks with Prince Lichnowsky, Grey drew a sharp distinction between an Austro-Serbian war, which did not concern Britain, and an Austro-Russian war, which did. Grey added that Britain was not working in concord with France and Russia, which heightened Jagow's hopes of severing Britain from the Triple Entente. On the same day, Jagow sent another message to Vienna to encourage the Austro-Hungarians to hurry up with declaring war on Serbia.

On 26 July, Berchtold rejected Grey's mediation offer, and wrote that if a localisation should not prove possible, then the Dual Monarchy was counting, "with gratitude", on Germany's support "if a struggle against another adversary is forced on us". That same day, General Helmuth von Moltke sent a message to Belgium demanding that German troops be allowed to pass through that kingdom "in the event of an imminent war against France and Russia". Bethmann Hollweg in a message to the German ambassadors in London, Paris, and St. Petersburg stated that the principal aim of German foreign policy now was to make it appear that Russia had forced Germany into a war, in order to keep Britain neutral and ensure that German public opinion would back the war effort. Bethmann Hollweg advised Wilhelm to send Nicholas a telegram, which he assured the Emperor was for public relations purposes only. As Bethmann Hollweg put it, "If war should come after all, such a telegram would make Russia's guilt glaringly plain". Moltke visited the German Foreign Ministry to advise Jagow that Germany should start drafting an ultimatum to justify an invasion of Belgium. Later, Moltke met with Bethmann Hollweg, and told his wife later that same day that he had informed the Chancellor he was "very dissatisfied" that Germany had not yet attacked Russia.

On 26 July, in St. Petersburg, the German ambassador Friedrich von Pourtalès told Sazonov to reject Grey's offer of a summit in London, stating that the proposed conference was "too unwieldy", and if Russia were serious about saving the peace, they would negotiate directly with the Austro-Hungarians. Sazonov replied that he was willing to see Serbia accept almost all of the Austro-Hungarian demands, and following Pourtalès's advice, rejected Grey's conference proposal in favour of direct talks with the Austro-Hungarians. Pourtalès reported to Germany that Sazonov was being "more conciliatory", seeking "to find a bridge... to satisfy... Austrian demands" and willing to do almost anything to save the peace. At the same time, Pourtalès warned that changes in the Balkan balance of power would be regarded as a highly unfriendly act by Russia. The following Austro-Russian talks were sabotaged by Austria-Hungary's refusal to abandon any of the demands on Serbia. As a preparatory move in case a war did break out, and Britain were to become involved, Winston Churchill, First Lord of the British Admiralty, ordered the British fleet not to disperse as planned, arguing that news of the British move might serve as a deterrent to war, and thus help persuade Germany to put pressure on Austria to abandon some of the more outrageous demands in their ultimatum. Grey stated that a compromise solution could be worked out if Germany and Britain were to work together. His approach generated opposition from British officials, who felt the Germans were dealing with the crisis in bad faith. Nicolson warned Grey that in his opinion "Berlin is playing with us". Grey for his part, rejected Nicolson's assessment, and believed that Germany was interested in stopping a general war.

Philippe Berthelot, the political director of the Quai d'Orsay, told Wilhelm von Schoen, the German ambassador in Paris that "to my simple mind Germany’s attitude was inexplicable if it did not aim at war".

In Vienna, Conrad von Hötzendorf and Berchtold disagreed about when Austria-Hungary should begin operations. Conrad wanted to wait until a military offensive was ready, which he estimated at 12 August, while Berchtold thought that the diplomatic window for a retaliatory strike would have passed by then.

On 27 July, Grey sent another peace proposal through Prince Lichnowsky asking for Germany to use its influence on Austria-Hungary to save the peace. Grey warned Lichnowsky that if Austria-Hungary continued with its aggression against Serbia, and Germany with its policy of supporting Austria-Hungary, then Britain would have no other choice but to side with France and Russia. The French Foreign Minister informed the German ambassador in Paris, Schoen, that France was anxious to find a peaceful solution, and was prepared to do his utmost with his influence in St. Petersburg if Germany should "counsel moderation in Vienna, since Serbia had fulfilled nearly every point".

Wilhelm has second thoughts (26 July)

On 26 July, after reading Serbia's reply, Wilhelm commented "But that eliminates any reason for war" or "every cause for war falls to the ground". Wilhelm noted that Serbia had made "a capitulation of the most humiliating kind", that "the few reservations [that] Serbia has made with respect to certain points can in my opinion surely be cleared up by negotiation", and acting independently of Grey, made a similar "Stop in Belgrade" offer. Wilhelm stated that because "the Serbs are Orientals, therefore liars, tricksters, and masters of evasion", a temporary Austro-Hungarian occupation of Belgrade was required until Serbia kept its word.

Wilhelm's sudden change of mind about war enraged Bethmann Hollweg, the military, and the diplomatic service, who proceeded to sabotage Wilhelm's offer. A German general wrote: "unfortunately... peaceful news. The Kaiser wants peace... He even wants to influence Austria and to stop continuing further." Bethmann Hollweg sabotaged Wilhelm's proposal by instructing Tschirschky not to restrain Austria-Hungary. In passing on Wilhelm's message, Bethmann Hollweg excluded the parts wherein the Emperor told the Austro-Hungarians not to go to war. Jagow told his diplomats to disregard Wilhelm's peace offer, and continue to press for war. General Falkenhayn told Wilhelm he "no longer had control of the affair in his own hands". Falkenhayn went on to imply that the military would stage a coup d'état, and depose Wilhelm in favour of his son the hawkish Crown Prince Wilhelm, if he continued to work for peace.

Bethmann Hollweg mentioned two favourable conditions for war in his telegram to Vienna: that Russia be made to appear the aggressor forcing a reluctant Germany into war, and that Britain be kept neutral. The necessity of making Russia appear the aggressor was the greater concern to Bethmann Hollweg because the German Social Democratic Party had denounced Austria-Hungary for declaring war on Serbia and ordered street demonstrations to protest Germany's actions in supporting Austria-Hungary. However, Bethmann Hollweg put great faith in the private promises he received from SPD leaders that they would support the government if Germany were faced with a Russian attack.

On 27 July, Wilhelm ended his cruise in the North Sea and returned to Germany. Wilhelm landed at Cuxhaven (Kiel) departing on 25 July at 6 p.m. despite the objections of his chancellor. The next afternoon, the order to disperse the British Fleet and dismiss British reservists was rescinded, putting the British Navy on a war footing.

Austria-Hungary makes final preparations for war (27 July)

Later, on 27 July, Austria-Hungary started to complete the preparations for war. That same day, Jagow informed Szögyény that he was only pretending to take up the British offers of mediation in order to ensure British neutrality, but had no intention of stopping the war. Szögyény reported "in order to avoid a misunderstanding" that Jagow had promised him that "the German government assured Austria in the most binding fashion that it in no way identifies itself with the proposal [Grey's mediation offer], which may very shortly be brought to Your Excellency [Berchtold]'s notice by the German government: it is, on the contrary decidedly opposed to consideration of them and is only passing them on out of deference to the British request" (emphasis in the original). Jagow went on to state he was "absolutely against taking account of the British wish", because "the German government point of view was that it was at the moment of the highest importance to prevent Britain from making common cause with Russia and France. We must therefore avoid any action [that] might cut the line, which has so far worked so well, between Germany and Britain". Szögyény ended his telegram: "If Germany candidly told Grey that it refused to communicate England’s peace plan, that objective [ensuring British neutrality in the coming war] might not be achieved." Bethmann Hollweg, in a message to Tschirschky, wrote on 27 July that Germany must appear to consider British mediation if they were not to be perceived as war-mongers. In passing on Grey's message, Bethmann Hollweg deleted the last line, which read: "Also, the whole world here is convinced, and I hear from my colleagues that the key to the situation lies in Berlin, and that if Berlin seriously wants peace, it will prevent Vienna from following a foolhardy policy." In his reply to London, Bethmann Hollweg pretended that: "We have immediately initiated mediation in Vienna in the sense desired by Sir Edward Grey." Jagow sent Grey's offer to Tschirschky, his ambassador in Vienna, but ordered him not to show it to any Austro-Hungarian official, in case they might accept it. At the same time, Bethmann Hollweg sent a distorted account of Grey's offer to Wilhelm.

In London, Grey told a meeting of the British Cabinet that they now had to decide whether to choose neutrality if war did come or to enter the conflict. While the Cabinet was still undecided about what course to choose, Churchill put the British fleet on alert. The Austro-Hungarian ambassador in Paris, Count Nikolaus Szécsen von Temerin, reported to Vienna: "The far-reaching compliance of Serbia, which was not regarded as possible here, has made a strong impression. Our attitude gives rise to the opinion that we want war at any price." A Russian diplomat in London presciently criticised Grey for putting too much faith in Germany as a force for peace. The British were warned that "War is inevitable and by the fault of England; that if England had at once declared her solidarity with Russia and France and her intention to fight if necessary, Germany and Austria would have hesitated." In Berlin, Admiral Georg von Müller wrote in his diary that "Germany should remain calm to allow Russia to put herself in the wrong but then not to shrink from war if it were inevitable". Bethmann Hollweg told Wilhelm that "In all events Russia must ruthlessly be put in the wrong".

On 28 July at 11:49 a.m. Prince Lichnowsky sent the fourth British offer of mediation, this time coming from King George V, as well as Grey. Lichnowsky wrote that the King desired that "British-German joint participation, with the assistance of France and Italy, may be successful in mastering in the interest of peace the present extremely serious situation". At 4:25 p.m. on 28 July, Lichnowsky reported to Berlin that "since appearance of Austrian demands nobody here believes in possibility of localising conflict". Nicolson, and the Private Secretary to Grey, William Tyrrell, saw Grey's conference offer as "the only possibility of avoiding a general war" and hoped "to get full satisfaction for Austria, as Serbia would be more apt to give in to the pressure of the Powers and to submit to their united will than to the threats of Austria". Tyrrell relayed Grey's view that if Serbia were invaded, "world war would be inevitable". Lichnowsky in his dispatch to Berlin offered "an urgent warning against believing any further in the possibility of localisation [of the conflict]". When Edward Goschen, the British ambassador in Berlin, presented Grey's conference proposal to Jagow, the Germans totally rejected the offer. In a letter to Grey, Bethmann Hollweg stated that Germany "could not summon Austria before a European court of justice in her case with Serbia". Austro-Hungarian troops began to concentrate in Bosnia as a preparatory step towards invading Serbia. Falkenhayn told the German government, "It has now been decided to fight the matter through, regardless of the cost", and advised Bethmann Hollweg to order a German attack on Russia and France at once. Moltke supported Falkenhayn by submitting the assessment that 1914 was a "singularly favourable situation" for Germany to go to war as both Russia and France were not prepared whereas Germany was. Once the Russian Great Military Programme would be completed by 1917, Moltke stated that Germany would never be able to entertain the prospect of a victorious war again and so should destroy both France and Russia while it was still possible. Moltke ended his assessment with: "We shall never hit it again so well as we do now." Jagow backed up Moltke by sending a message to Vienna telling the Austro-Hungarians they must attack Serbia at once because otherwise the British peace plan might be accepted.

Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia (28 July)

thumb|Austria-Hungary's telegram to the Kingdom of Serbia declaring war, 28 July 1914

At 11:00 a.m. on 28 July, Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia. Following instructions from Bethmann Hollweg, Tschirschky did not present Wilhelm's "Stop in Belgrade" proposal until noon. At 1:00 a.m. on 29 July 1914 the first shots of the First World War were fired by the Austro-Hungarian monitor SMS Bodrog, which bombarded Belgrade in response to Serbian sappers blowing up the railway bridge over the river Sava which linked the two countries. In the Russian Empire, partial mobilisation was ordered for the four military districts bordering Austria-Hungary. Wilhelm sent a telegram to Nicholas asking for Russian support for the Austro-Hungarian war against Serbia. Nicholas replied: "Am glad you are back... I appeal to you to help me. An ignoble war has been declared on a weak country... Soon I shall be overwhelmed by pressure brought upon me... to take extreme measures which will lead to war. To try and avoid such a calamity as a European war, I beg you in the name of our old friendship to do what you can to stop your allies from going too far."

Shortly after declaring war on Serbia, Conrad informed the Germans that Austria-Hungary could not start operations until 12 August, to much fury in Berlin. Bavarian diplomat Count Lerchenfeld reported to Munich: "The Imperial government is thus put into the extraordinarily difficult position of being exposed during the intervening period to the other Powers’ proposals for mediation and conferences, and if it continues to maintain its previous reserve towards such proposals, the odium of having provoked a world war will in the end recoil on it, even in the eyes of the German people. But a successful war on three fronts (viz, in Serbia, Russia and France) can not be initiated and carried on such a basis. It is imperative that the responsibility for any extension of the conflict to the Powers not directly concerned should under all circumstances fall on Russia alone." At the same time, the German ambassador to Russia, Portalés, reported that, based on a conversation with Sazonov, Russia was prepared to make "astonishing" concessions by promising to pressure Serbia to agree to most of the Austro-Hungarian demands to avoid a war. The prospect of talks was rejected out of hand by Bethmann Hollweg.

Though as late as 27 July, Jagow expressed the view that Russian partial mobilisation against the frontiers of Austria-Hungary was not a casus belli, Moltke instead argued that Germany should mobilise at once and attack France. In two meetings on 29 July, Moltke was overruled by Bethmann Hollweg, who argued that Germany should wait for Russia to begin a general mobilisation. As Bethmann Hollweg told Moltke, this was the best way to ensure that blame for the "whole shemozzle" could be placed on Russia's door, and thus ensure British neutrality. While promising not to start mobilisation without the Chancellor's orders, Moltke ordered the German military attaché in Belgium to ask for permission for German troops to cross through on the way to attack France. Also, on 28 July, Bethmann Hollweg offered to form an anti-Russian military alliance with the Ottoman Empire.

thumb|Cartoon titled "The Globe Trotter" in U.S. newspaper [[The Dispatch / The Rock Island Argus|Rock Island Argus on 29 July 1914 depicting "General War Scare" running from resolved US-Mexico tension to "all points in Europe"]]

In a meeting with the British ambassador, Goschen, Bethmann Hollweg made the flagrantly false statement that Germany was trying to pressure Austria-Hungary to abandon the war against Serbia. As Prince Henry of Prussia pretended that King George V had promised him that Britain would remain neutral, the Kaiser rejected Bethmann Hollweg's offer of a naval agreement with Britain, stating that Germany did not have to offer Britain anything now that King George had apparently promised his country's neutrality.

In London, Churchill wrote to George V that the Royal Navy had been placed "upon a preparatory precautionary basis". Churchill went on to write that "it is needless to emphasise that these measures in no way prejudice an intervention or take for granted that the peace of the great powers will not be preserved".

On 29 July, Wilhelm sent a telegram to Nicholas stating "I think a direct understanding between your government and Vienna possible and desirable". The Austro-Hungarian General Staff sent a note to Jagow complaining about his statement that he did not regard a Russian partial mobilisation as a threat to Germany, and asked that Germany mobilise to deter Russia from supporting Serbia. In response to the Austro-Hungarian message, Jagow told a Russian diplomat that "Germany was likewise obliged to mobilise [in response to Russian partial mobilisation]; there was therefore nothing left to be done and the diplomatists must now leave the talking to the cannon."

At a meeting in Potsdam, according to Admiral Alfred von Tirpitz's notes, Wilhelm "expressed himself without reserve regarding Bethmann's incompetence" in foreign affairs. Bethmann Hollweg suggested that Germany sign a naval agreement with Britain limiting the size of the High Seas Fleet to keep Britain out of the war. Tirpitz went on to record: "The Kaiser informed the company that the Chancellor had proposed that in order to keep England neutral, we should sacrifice the German fleet for an agreement with England, which he, the Kaiser had refused."

To ensure acceptance of his peace plan, Grey proposed a "Stop in Belgrade" offer, in which Austria-Hungary would occupy Belgrade and go no further. Since this was the same proposal as Wilhelm had made, Bethmann Hollweg regarded this as a particular threat as it would have made it difficult for Germany to reject it. Bethmann Hollweg asked that Austria-Hungary at least make an effort to show some interest in the British peace plan. In an effort to sabotage Bethmann Hollweg's offer (which though not sincere was regarded as dangerous in case it might succeed), Moltke asked Vienna not to consider the British peace plan, and instead to order general mobilisation and activate War Plan R, the Austro-Hungarian war plan for a war against Russia.

At a meeting with Bethmann Hollweg late on 29 July, Falkenhayn and Moltke both again demanded that Germany use Russian partial mobilisation as an excuse to go to war. Bethmann Hollweg again insisted that Germany must wait for Russian general mobilisation as it was the only way of ensuring that the German public and that Britain would remain neutral in the "imminent war" against France and Russia. In order to "make Russia appear the aggressor", Moltke asked for Austro-Hungarian mobilisation against Russia so as to provide a casus foederis for Germany to mobilise likewise. In the same message, Moltke expressed hope that the British peace plan would fail, and announced his belief that the only way of saving Austria-Hungary as a power was through a general European war. In the evening, Moltke repeated his request, and promised again that "Germany will mobilise" against Russia, were Austria-Hungary to do the same. Count Szogyeny reported to Vienna that the German government "regarded the possibility of a European conflict with the most complete calm", and that the Germans were only concerned about the possibility of Italy not honouring the Triple Alliance.

Britain rejects German attempts to ensure British neutrality (29 July)

In a meeting in London, Grey warned Prince Lichnowsky in veiled terms that if Germany attacked France, then Britain would consider going to war with Germany. Grey repeated his "Stop in Belgrade" peace plan, and strongly urged that Germany accept it. Grey ended his meeting with the warning that "unless Austria is willing to enter upon a discussion of the Serbian question a world war is inevitable". To support Grey's warnings, the British government ordered a general alert for its armed forces. In Paris, Jean Jaurès, the leader of the French Socialist Party and an outspoken pacifist, was assassinated by a right-wing fanatic. In St. Petersburg, the French Ambassador Maurice Paléologue, upon learning belatedly on the night of 29/30 July of Russia's partial mobilisation, protested against the Russian move.

At another meeting with Goschen late on the night of 29 July, Bethmann Hollweg stated that Germany would soon be going to war against France and Russia, and sought to ensure British neutrality by promising him that Germany would not annex parts of metropolitan France (Bethmann Hollweg refused to make any promises about French colonies). During the same meeting, Bethmann Hollweg all but announced that Germany would soon violate Belgium's neutrality, though Bethmann Hollweg said that, if Belgium did not resist, Germany would not annex that kingdom.

The Goschen–Bethmann Hollweg meeting did much to galvanise the British government into deciding to ally with France and Russia. Eyre Crowe commented that Germany had "made up her mind" to go to war. Germany's policy was to reveal to Britain her war aims in hope that a statement might be reached that would ensure British neutrality. Instead, Bethmann Hollweg's move had the opposite effect, since it was now clear to London that Germany had no interest in peace.

After Goschen left the meeting, Bethmann Hollweg received a message from Prince Lichnowsky saying that Grey was most anxious for a four power conference, but that if Germany attacked France, then Britain would have no other choice but to intervene in the war. In response to the British warning, Bethmann Hollweg suddenly changed course, writing to Tschirschky that Austria-Hungary should accept mediation. Five minutes later, Bethmann Hollweg asked Vienna in a second message to stop "refusing any exchange of views with Russia", and warned that they "must refuse to allow Vienna to draw us into a world conflagration frivolously and without regard to our advice". In another message, Bethmann Hollweg wrote "To avert a general catastrophe or in any case to put Russia in the wrong, we must urgently wish Vienna to begin and continue conversations with Russia." As historian Fritz Leiber noted, only when Bethmann Hollweg received a clear warning that Britain would intervene in a war did he begin to apply pressure on Austria-Hungary for peace. Bethmann Hollweg's advice was rejected by Austria-Hungary as being too late. Berchtold told the German ambassador that he would need a few days to think about the German offer, and until then, events would proceed.

Germany urges Austria-Hungary to accept the Serbian offer (28–30 July)

thumb|[[Vladimir Sukhomlinov, Minister of War of the Russian Empire, insisted a partial mobilisation was impossible for Russia.]]

At the start of the July Crisis, Germany had given her full support to Austria-Hungary. This stratagem had earlier served to keep Russia on the sidelines during the Annexationist Crisis of 1908, and may therefore have been thought to offer the best possible prospect of keeping the Austro-Serb dispute localised. On 28 July, Russia ordered partial mobilisation in response to Austria-Hungary's declaration of war on Serbia, Bethmann Hollweg became alarmed and changed his attitude. Already on 28 July, two hours before becoming aware of the Austro-Hungarian declaration of war, the Kaiser had suggested the "Halt in Belgrade" plan and instructed Jagow that a cause for war no longer existed with the Serbian reply and he was ready to mediate with Serbia.

After learning of the Austro-Hungarian declaration of war on Serbia, Bethmann Hollweg sent off the Kaiser's 'pledge plan' to Vienna on the evening of 28 July, with instructions to Tschirschky (the German ambassador in Vienna) to express himself "emphatically" to Berchtold and to "wire reply". After waiting all day Wednesday (29 July) for a reply, Bethmann Hollweg sent off three more telegrams urgently demanding an "immediate" answer to his 'pledge plan' and the plan for "direct conversations" between Austria-Hungary and Russia and added in severe disapproval of Austria-Hungary.

After receiving information from Rome that Serbia was now ready "on condition of certain interpretations, to swallow even Articles 5 and 6, that is, the whole Austrian ultimatum", Bethmann Hollweg forwarded this information to Vienna at 12:30 a.m., 30 July, adding that Serbia's response to the Austro-Hungarian ultimatum were a "suitable basis for negotiation." Berchtold replied that though the acceptance of the Austro-Hungarian note would have been satisfactory before hostilities had begun, "now after a state of war has begun, Austria's conditions must naturally take another tone." In response, Bethmann Hollweg, now aware of the Russian order for partial mobilisation, fired off several telegrams in the early morning hours of 30 July. He telegraphed Vienna at 2:55 a.m. and 3:00 a.m. urging that Austria-Hungary accept the Serbian terms in order to avoid drawing Germany into a general war.

These early-morning telegrams from Bethmann Hollweg were given by Tschirschky to Berchtold while the two men lunched on Thursday, 30 July. Tschirschky reported to Berlin that Berchtold was "pale and silent" as the Bethmann telegrams were read twice, before stating that he would take the matter to the Emperor. After Berchtold had departed for his audience with Emperor Franz Joseph on the afternoon of Thursday, 30 July, Berchtold's advisors Forgach and Hoyos informed Bethmann Hollweg that he should not expect a reply until the following morning (Friday, 31 July), as Tisza, who would not be in Vienna until then, must be consulted. Bethmann spent the remainder of the day, 30 July, continuing to impress Vienna with the need for negotiations and to inform the Powers of his mediation efforts.

Russian general mobilisation (30 July)

On 30 July, Nicholas sent a message to Wilhelm informing him that he had ordered partial mobilisation against Austria-Hungary, and asking him to do his utmost for a peaceful solution. Upon hearing of Russia's partial mobilisation, Wilhelm wrote: "Then I must mobilise too." The German ambassador in St. Petersburg informed Nicholas that Germany would mobilise if Russia did not cease all military preparations at once, including those it had previously assured Russia it did not see as a threat against Germany or cause for German mobilisation. The German military attaché in Russia reported that the Russians appeared to be acting out of fear but "without aggressive intentions". At the same time, Nicholas's order for a partial mobilisation met with protests from both Sazonov and the Russian War Minister General Vladimir Sukhomlinov, who insisted partial mobilisation was not technically possible, and that, given Germany's attitude, a general mobilisation was required. Nicholas at first ordered a general mobilisation, and then after receiving an appeal for peace from Wilhelm cancelled it as a sign of his good faith. The cancellation of general mobilisation led to furious protests from Sukhomlinov, Sazonov, and Russia's top generals, all urging Nicholas to reinstate it. Under strong pressure, Nicholas gave in and ordered a general mobilisation on 30 July.

Christopher Clark states: "The Russian general mobilization was one of the most momentous decisions of the July crisis. This was the first of the general mobilizations. It came at the moment when the German government had not yet even declared the State of Impending War, the last stage of preparedness before mobilization."

Russia did this:

in response to the Austro-Hungarian declaration of war on Serbia on 28 July
because the previously ordered partial mobilisation was incompatible with a future general mobilisation
because of Sazonov's conviction that Austro-Hungarian intransigence was Germany's policy and, if Germany was directing Austria-Hungary, there was no point in mobilising against Austria-Hungary only
because France reiterated her support for Russia, and there was significant cause to think that Britain would also support Russia

Nicholas wanted neither to abandon Serbia to the ultimatum of Austria-Hungary, nor to provoke a general war. In a series of letters exchanged with Wilhelm (the so-called "Willy–Nicky correspondence") the two proclaimed their desire for peace, and each attempted to get the other to back down. Nicholas desired that Russia's mobilisation be only against the Austro-Hungarian border, in the hopes of preventing war with Germany. However, his army had no contingency plans for a partial mobilisation, and on 31 July 1914 Nicholas took the fateful step of confirming the order for general mobilisation, despite being strongly counseled against it.

German response to Russian mobilisation

thumb|upright=1.3|Cartoon titled "The Army Worm" in the US newspaper [[Chicago Daily News depicting "War Menace" threatening the people of Europe, 1914]]

In the evening of Thursday, 30 July, with Berlin's strenuous efforts to persuade Vienna to some form of negotiation, and with Bethmann Hollweg still awaiting a response from Berchtold, Russia gave the order for full mobilisation. When Wilhelm learned that, were Germany to attack France and Russia, Britain would in all likelihood not remain neutral, he launched a vehement rant, denouncing Britain as "that filthy nation of grocers." That same day, the anti-Russian German-Ottoman alliance was signed. Moltke passed on a message to Conrad asking for general mobilisation as a prelude to a war against Russia.

At 9:00 p.m. on 30 July, Bethmann Hollweg gave in to Moltke and Falkenhayn's repeated demands and promised them that Germany would issue a proclamation of "imminent danger of war" at noon the next day regardless of whether Russia began a general mobilisation or not. Bethmann Hollweg was overjoyed upon learning of Russian general mobilisation at 9:00 am on 31 July, as it allowed him to present the war as something forced on Germany by Russia.

At a meeting of the Prussian State Council held on 30 July, Bethmann Hollweg noted Russian mobilisation was not a source of worry for Germany: Bethmann Hollweg stated that his only interest now was, for domestic political reasons, to "represent Russia as the guilty party" behind the war. In the same meeting, the Chancellor stated that if it appeared to public opinion that Russian mobilisation had forced Germany into a war, then there was "nothing to fear" from the Social Democrats. Bethmann Hollweg added, "There will be no question of a general or partial strike or of sabotage."

Later that day, Bethmann Hollweg sent a message to the German ambassador to Vienna increasing pressure to accept the halt-in-Belgrade proposal. Bethmann Hollweg could not go to war in support of Austro-Hungarian intransigence under such circumstances. But shortly afterwards, "as soon as news of Russia's general mobilisation began to arrive in Berlin" the Chancellor instructed the ambassador in Vienna "that all mediation attempts be stopped", and the directive be suspended. Fritz Fischer and some other scholars have maintained the alternative view that Prince Henry's assurances that King George had promised him that Britain would remain neutral accounted for the change. Fischer notes the telegram reporting these "vague" assurances arrived 12 minutes before the dispatch of the suspending telegram and that Bethmann Hollweg himself justified the cancellation that way, while acknowledging that before then Bethmann Hollweg had already prepared, but not yet sent, a telegram to Vienna explaining that he had "cancelled execution of instructions in No. 200, because the General Staff has just informed me that military measures of our neighbors, especially in the east, compel speedy decision if we are not to be taken by surprise".

Austria-Hungary pursues the Serbian war, France and Britain urge restraint (30–31 July)

Upon arriving back in France, the French Premier Viviani sent a message to St. Petersburg asking that Russia not take any action that would offer Germany an excuse to mobilise. French troops were ordered to pull back from the German frontier as a sign of France's peaceful intentions. Asquith wrote to Stanley noting the deteriorating situation.

On 31 July, the Austro-Hungarian Crown Council continued the war against Serbia, despite the Russian mobilisation at their border. Wilhelm cabled his concerns to Nicholas about the Russian mobilisation, which was threatening Austria-Hungary. Nicholas responded that Russian general mobilisation was not aimed as a prelude to war.

The German ambassador in Paris delivered an ultimatum to Viviani telling him they had to either bring the Russians to stop their mobilisation, or 'accept responsibility for bringing on a conflict'. Viviani did have the option of threatening the Tsar, that France would no longer be an ally, if Russia did not demobilise immediately. Viviani did not know of the Russian mobilisation until that point. General Joseph Joffre of the French Army asked for permission to order a general mobilisation. His request was refused.

Near midnight the German ambassador to Russia delivered an ultimatum to stop the mobilisation within 12 hours or Germany would mobilise too.

German mobilisation (1–3 August)

thumb|upright=2|Map depicting the [[Schlieffen Plan. Germany believed that, in the event of war with France and Russia, the German path to victory would be to quickly defeat France before turning to fight Russia. The need for a quick resolution in the Western Front prompted German plans to avoid French defensive fortifications (depicted here as blue areas) by maneuvering north and violating Belgian neutrality.]]

When the word reached Berlin of Russian general mobilisation, Wilhelm agreed to sign the orders for German mobilisation, and German troops began preparations to enter Luxembourg and Belgium as a preliminary towards invading France. As historian Fritz Fischer noted, Bethmann Hollweg's gamble in waiting for Russian mobilisation had paid off, and the Social Democrats rallied to support the government. The Bavarian military attaché reported celebration in the halls of the War Ministry at word of the Russian mobilisation. Under the Schlieffen Plan, for Germany to mobilise was to mean war because as part of the plan, German troops as they were called up were to invade Belgium automatically. Unlike the war plans of the other powers, for Germany to mobilise was to go to war. Both Moltke and Falkenhayn told the government that Germany should declare war even were Russia to offer to negotiate.

Asquith wrote to Stanley in London that "the general opinion at present—particularly strong in the City—is to keep out at all costs". The British Cabinet was badly divided with many ministers strongly opposed to Britain becoming involved in a war; a key figure was David Lloyd George, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, who initially favoured keeping Britain's options open, then appeared likely to resign at the start of August, only in the end to remain in post as he regarded the German aggression against Belgium as sufficient casus belli. The Conservatives promised the government if the anti-war Liberal ministers were to resign, they would enter the government to support going to war. F. E. Smith told Churchill that the Conservatives would support a war against Germany were France attacked.

thumb|A Berlin crowd listens as a German officer reads Wilhelm II's order for mobilisation, 1 August 1914.

On 31 July, Wilhelm wrote that the Triple Entente had conspired to entrap Germany in its treaty obligations with Austria-Hungary "as a pretext for waging a war of annihilation against us".

On 1 August 1914, a British offer to guarantee French neutrality was sent out and promptly accepted by Wilhelm. At 4:23 p.m. a telegram from the German ambassador to Britain, Prince Lichnowsky, arrived. Lichnowsky repeated assurances that he erroneously thought Grey had given to him: a planned British proposal to guarantee the neutrality of France and thus limit the war to one fought in the east. Wilhelm then ordered German forces to strike against Russia alone, leading to fierce protests from Moltke that it was not technically possible for Germany to do so as the bulk of the German forces were already advancing into Luxembourg and Belgium. Wilhelm immediately accepted the proposal by telegrams at the ambassadorial and royal levels. In keeping with this decision, Wilhelm II demanded his generals shift the mobilisation to the east. Moltke, Chief of the German General Staff, told him that this was impossible, to which the Kaiser replied "Your uncle would have given me a different answer!" Instead, it was decided to mobilise as planned and cancel the planned invasion of Luxembourg. Once mobilisation was complete, the army would redeploy to the east. In response to Wilhelm's order, a dejected Moltke complained that "Now, it only remains for Russia to back out, too." Since no such offer was actually given, Wilhelm's acceptance of the proposal was met with confusion in London; no deal was completed, and King George responded by writing "I think there must be some misunderstanding." After receiving King George's telegram, Wilhelm told Moltke to proceed with the invasion of Luxembourg.

In Berlin, Bethmann Hollweg announced that Germany had mobilised and delivered an ultimatum to France telling that country to renounce its alliance with Russia or face a German attack. In response to reports of German troops invading Luxembourg and Belgium plus the German ultimatum, French mobilisation was authorized on 1 August; that same afternoon, Wilhelm signed the mobilisation orders. Bethmann Hollweg was angry with Moltke for having had Wilhelm sign the orders without informing him first. By 7:00 pm on 1 August, German troops invaded Luxembourg.

Germany declares war on Russia, France, and Belgium (1–4 August)

At the same time as the invasion of Luxembourg, on 1 August 1914 Germany declared war on Russia. When presenting his declaration of war, the German ambassador Friedrich von Pourtalès accidentally gave the Russians both copies of the declaration of war, one which claimed that Russia refused to reply to Germany and the other that said Russia's replies were unacceptable. Grey warned Lichnowsky that if Germany invaded Belgium, Britain would go to war.

In the morning of 2 August, while French troops were still at a distance from the German frontier, German troops took control of Luxembourg as a preliminary to the invasion of Belgium and France.

On 2 August, the British government promised that the Royal Navy would protect France's coast from German attack. Grey gave Britain's firm assurance of protecting France with its navy to French Ambassador Paul Cambon. Cambon's account stated: "I felt the battle was won. Everything was settled. In truth a great country does not wage war by halves. Once it decided to fight the war at sea it would necessarily be led into fighting it on land as well." Within the British Cabinet, the widespread feeling that Germany would soon violate Belgium's neutrality and destroy France as a power led to the increasing acceptance that Britain would be forced to intervene.

A German ultimatum was delivered, this time to Belgium on 2 August, requesting free passage for the German Army on the way to France. King Albert of Belgium refused the German request to violate his country's neutrality. On 3 August, Germany declared war on France, According to Goschen's report to Grey, Bethmann Hollweg said the 1839 Treaty of London was for Britain (not for Germany), an excuse i.e. a "scrap of paper" and, compared to the "fearful fact of Anglo-German war", the steps taken by His Majesty's Government were terrible to a degree; just for a word—"neutrality", a word which in war time had so often been disregarded—just for a scrap of paper Britain was going to make war on a kindred nation who desired nothing better than to be friends with it.