Intelligence assessment is a specific phase of the intelligence cycle which oversees the development of behavior forecasts or recommended courses of action to the leadership of an organization, based on wide ranges of available overt and covert intelligence (also known as "intel").

There are two types of assessment;

  • In the beginning of the intelligence cycle, during the direction phase (also known as tasking or planning), intelligence officers assess past intelligence, identify gaps in information, and determine what new intelligence is needed.
  • Intelligence assessment also occurs toward the end of the intelligence cycle, during the analysis & production phase. This phase comes after collection and processing but before dissemination to policymakers. The "requirement" is passed to the assessing agency and worked through the intelligence cycle, a structured method for responding to the RFI.

The RFI may indicate in what format the requester prefers to consume the product.

The RFI is reviewed by a Requirements Manager, who will then direct appropriate tasks to respond to the request. This will involve a review of existing material, the tasking of new analytical product or the collection of new information to inform an analysis.

New information may be collected through one or more of the various collection disciplines; human source, electronic and communications intercept, imagery or open sources. The nature of the RFI and the urgency placed on it may indicate that some collection types are unsuitable due to the time taken to collect or validate the information gathered.

The process of taking known information about situations and entities of importance to the RFI, characterizing what is known and attempting to forecast future events is termed "all source" assessment, analysis or processing. The analyst uses multiple sources to mutually corroborate, or exclude, the information collected, reaching a conclusion along with a measure of confidence around that conclusion.

Where sufficient current information already exists, the analysis may be tasked directly without reference to further collection.

The analysis is then communicated back to the requester in the format directed, although subject to the constraints on both the RFI and the methods used in the analysis, the format may be made available for other uses as well and disseminated accordingly.

Target-centric intelligence cycle

The F3EA Cycle

thumb|Target-centric intelligence cycle

This approach, known as Find-Fix-Finish-Exploit-Assess (F3EA), is complementary to the intelligence cycle and focused on the intervention itself, where the subject of the assessment is clearly identifiable and provisions exist to make some form of intervention against that subject, the target-centric assessment approach may be used.

  • Analyze
  • The collected information is analyzed to identify patterns, assess credibility, and produce intelligence reports.
  • Disseminate
  • The output from the exploit stage is disseminated to key stakeholders and other intelligence assessment activities.

Intelligence information cycle theory around the world

United States Intelligence Community

The U.S. intelligence community (IC) follows a structured six-step intelligence cycle;

  • Planning & Direction

United Kingdom

The UK intelligence process is similar but often less bureaucratic, with MI6 (SIS) focusing on HUMINT, GCHQ on SIGINT, and MI5 on domestic security. The Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) plays a key role in assessing intelligence for policymakers, rather than each agency handling it independently.

Russia (FSB/GRU/SVR)

The Russian approach integrates intelligence directly into active measures (deception, subversion, and disinformation) more than Western counterparts. Analysis and dissemination tend to be more centralized, with intelligence feeding directly into the Kremlin’s strategic decision-making.

China (MSS and PLA Intelligence)

China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) and military intelligence units prioritize long-term strategic intelligence gathering, especially industrial espionage and cyber warfare. The fusion of intelligence and policy-making is stronger, with the Chinese Communist Party exerting tight control over the process.

France (DGSE, DGSI, DRM, DRSD, DNRED, TRACFIN)

The French intelligence cycle closely resembles the U.S. and UK models, but with a greater focus on economic intelligence to support national industries. More autonomy is given to field operatives to gather and assess intelligence in real-time without excessive central oversight.

Israel (Mossad, Aman, Shin Bet)

Intelligence operations in Israel are highly operationally integrated, meaning the cycle often skips steps (e.g., collection may immediately lead to direct action, such as assassinations or preemptive strikes). Intelligence is designed for rapid-action scenarios, given Israel’s security threats.

See also

  • All-source intelligence
  • Intelligence cycle
  • List of intelligence gathering disciplines
  • Military intelligence
  • Surveillance
  • Threat assessment
  • Futures studies
  • Intelligence literature

References

  • Intelligence Literature: Suggested Reading List (CIA)
  • The Literature of Intelligence: A Bibliography of Materials, with Essays, Reviews, and Comments by J. Ransom Clark, Emeritus Professor of Political Science, Muskingum College