The Hubbert curve is an approximation of the production rate of a resource over time. It is a symmetric logistic distribution curve, It has gained a high degree of popularity in the scientific community for predicting the depletion of various natural resources. The curve is the main component of Hubbert peak theory, which has led to the rise of peak oil concerns. Basing his calculations on the peak of oil well discovery in 1948, Hubbert used his model in 1956 to create a curve which predicted that oil production in the contiguous United States would peak around 1970. while another applied it to cod.

Critique

After the predicted early-1970s peak of oil production in the U.S., production declined over the following 35 years in a pattern closely matching the Hubbert curve. However, new extraction methods began reversing this trend beginning in the mid-2000s decade, with production reaching 10.07 million b/d in November 2017 – the highest monthly level of crude oil production in U.S. history. As such, the Hubbert curve has to be calculated separately for different oil provinces, whose exploration has started at a different time, and oil extracted by new techniques, sometimes called unconventional oil, resulting in individual Hubbert cycles. The Hubbert Curve for US oil production is generally measured in years.

See also

  • Bioeconomics (biophysical)
  • Energy accounting
  • Gaussian function, a "bell curve" shape
  • Thermoeconomics

References

  • The Hubbert Curve: Its Strengths And Weaknesses article by Jean Laherrère.
  • Hubbert Math further mathematical manipulations by a Stanford professor
  • M. King Hubbert Bibliography