Canadian federal election results in Central Ontario

Canadian federal elections have provided the following results in Central Ontario.

Regional profile

The region is the central section of Southern Ontario, mainly comprising the rural area around Lake Simcoe. This has traditionally been the most conservative region of Ontario, in sharp contrast to the Greater Toronto Area to the south. It has historically been the backbone of support for the provincial Tories.

The citizens of the region are mostly white, Protestant, and agrarian, with a large number of social conservatives. Some parts of this region are as conservative as rural Alberta. This region was the heartland of the Reform Party and Canadian Alliance in Ontario, with Simcoe Centre electing a Reform MP in 1993—Reform's only victory east of Manitoba, ever. However, due to massive Reform-PC vote-splitting, the Liberals swept the region during the Chrétien era. The Unite the Right movement (accompanied by Chrétien's departure from office) led to the newly united Conservative Party seizing all but four of the region's seats in 2004. In 2006, Liberal support in this region melted; the only Liberal elected in this region was Belinda Stronach, a former Conservative who crossed the floor in 2005. Stronach's seat reverted to the Conservatives in 2008. In 2011, the Conservatives again swept the region, with the NDP's late-campaign surge propelling them to second in all but one riding..

The region was one of the few that resisted the massive Liberal surge in Ontario in 2015, though the Liberals managed to take Stronach's old riding of Newmarket—Aurora on the outer fringe of the Greater Toronto Area, a region that swung heavily to the Liberals in this election. They also managed to take all of Peterborough.

The riding of Peterborough—Kawartha (formerly simply Peterborough) had long been recognized by political scientists as one of the best bellwether ridings in the country.

Votes by party throughout time

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:right; line-height:16px"

! rowspan="2" width="20"|Election

! width="70" style="font-size:85%"|

! width="70" style="font-size:85%"| /

! width="70" style="font-size:85%"|

| |

! scope="row"|1979

| 125,841 29.0%

| 71,225 16.4%

| 234,660 54.0%

| 2,328 0.5%

! scope="row"|1980

| 143,779 34.5%

| 80,135 19.2%

| 189,788 45.5%

| 2,544 0.6%

! scope="row"|1984

| 105,152 22.6%

| 74,727 16.0%

| 1,138 0.2%

| 280,396 60.2%

| 3,635 0.8%

! scope="row"|1988

| 157,109 34.4%

| 81,975 17.9%

| 841 0.2%

| 205,296 44.9%

| 10,906 2.4%

! scope="row"|1993

| 215,871 41.1%

| 19,094 3.6%

| 1,236 0.2%

| 118,519 22.5%

| 153,005 29.1%

| 17,748 3.4%

! scope="row"|1997

| 210,873 41.7%

| 30,213 6.0%

| 894 0.2%

| 110,374 21.8%

| 148,429 29.4%

| 4,602 0.9%

! scope="row"|2000

| 219,934 45.4%

| 22,700 4.7%

| 3,469 0.7%

| 88,522 18.3%

| 146,637 30.3%

| 3,181 0.7%

! scope="row"|2004

| 227,496 39.5%

| 234,459 40.7%

| 73,857 12.8%

| 31,259 5.4%

| 6,725 1.2%

! scope="row"|2006

| 213,664 33.8%

| 279,356 44.1%

| 94,479 14.9%

| 40,721 6.4%

| 3,667 0.6%

! scope="row"|2008

| 140,068 24.2%

| 297,962 51.5%

| 68,130 11.8%

| 66,375 11.5%

| 4,086 0.7%

! scope="row"|2011

| 105,996 16.9%

| 347,266 55.4%

| 121,595 19.4%

| 38,882 6.2%

| 11,640 1.9%

! scope="row"|2015

| 275,281 39.3%

| 307,014 43.9%

| 87,261 12.5%

| 26,795 3.8%

| 2,747 0.4%

! scope="row"|2019

| 249,935 32.6%

| 323,402 42.2%

| 107,624 14.1%

| 66,790 8.7%

| 14,182 1.9%

| 2,472 0.3%

! scope="row"|2021

| 229,283 30.6%

| 343,969 45.9%

| 110,006 14.7%

| 15,443 2.1%

| 48,485 6.5%

| 2,564 0.3%

! scope="row"|2025

| 293,125 42.0%

| 366,390 52.5%

| 20,141 2.9%

| 8,199 1.2%

| 6,986 1.0%

| 2,800 0.4%

2019

2015

2011

2008

2006

2004

|thumb|Key map

Barrie
Durham
Dufferin-Caledon
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock
Newmarket-Aurora
Northumberland-Qunte West
Peterborough
Simcoe-Grey
Simcoe North
York-Simcoe

|thumb|Conservative Party of Canada

|thumb|Green Party of Canada

|thumb|Liberal Party of Canada

|thumb|New Democratic Party

2000

1997

1993

Party rankings

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center;"

! colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" | Parties

!1st

!2nd

!3rd

!4th

| 8

| 1

| 0

| 1

| 7

| 1

| 0

| 1

| 8

| 0

| 9

1988

Party rankings

The Liberals flipped Northumberland with a razor-thin 28 votes majority over the Progressive Conservatives, who won the other 8 seats.

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center;"

! colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" | Parties

!1st

!2nd

!3rd

| 8

| 1

| 0

| 1

| 8

| 0

| 9

1984

Party rankings

The Progressive Conservatives swept the region, winning everywhere with significant majorities. The Liberals arrived second in every riding in the region, with the NDP third.

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center;"

! colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" | Parties

!1st

!2nd

!3rd

| 10

| 0

| 10

| 0

| 10

Canadian federal election results in Central Ontario

Regional profile

Votes by party throughout time

2019

2015

2011

2008

2006

2004

2000

1997

1993

Party rankings

1988

Party rankings

1984

Party rankings

Notes

References