2004 United States Senate elections

The 2004 United States Senate elections were held on November 2, 2004, with all Class 3 Senate seats being contested. They coincided with the re-election of George W. Bush as president and the United States House elections, as well as many state and local elections. Senators who were elected in 1998, known as Senate Class 3, were seeking re-election or retiring in 2004.

Republicans won six seats but lost two themselves, giving them a net gain of four seats. Five of the six gains came from southern states. Democrats Fritz Hollings of South Carolina, John Breaux of Louisiana, Bob Graham of Florida, and Zell Miller of Georgia chose to retire, while John Edwards of North Carolina chose to run for the Democratic nomination for president, and was subsequently selected as the Democratic nominee for vice president. They were succeeded by Republicans Jim DeMint, David Vitter, Mel Martinez, Johnny Isakson, and Richard Burr, respectively.

In South Dakota, Republican John Thune defeated the incumbent Senate minority leader Tom Daschle, marking the first and only time since 1952 that a sitting party leader lost re-election, as well as the only time that person was the minority leader. Republican senator Peter Fitzgerald of Illinois chose not to run for re-election, and Democrat (and future president) Barack Obama won in a landslide, becoming the Senate's only Black member and only the third popularly elected in American history and only the third elected since Reconstruction. Also, Republican senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado chose not to run for re-election and Democrat Ken Salazar won the open seat.

This was the third consecutive election cycle for Senate Class 3 where the Democrats either broke even or lost seats. This also marked the first time since 1980 in which a presidential candidate from either party won with coattails in the Senate. Additionally, these election results are tied with those of 1996 and 1998 as the highest number of Senate seats that the Republicans have held since 1920. Republicans would not make a net gain of seats during a presidential election year again until 2024. This is the last time both major parties were on the general election ballot in every race.

Results summary

{| style="width:40em; text-align:center;"

|+ ↓

|- style="color:white;"

| style="background:; width:44%;" | 44

| style="background:; color:black; width:1%;" | 1

| style="background:; width:55%;" | 55

{| style="width:40em; text-align:center;"

| style="width:44%;color:"| Democratic

| Independent

| style="width:55%;color:"| Republican

<onlyinclude>Summary of the 2004 United States Senate elections results

{| class=wikitable style=text-align:center

! colspan=2 rowspan=2 | Parties

| style="background-color:" |

! rowspan=2 | Total

! Democratic

! Republican

! Independent

! Libertarian

! Others

! colspan=2 | Before these elections

| 48

| | 51

| 1

| —

! 100

! colspan=2 | End of this Congress (two months later)

| 48

| | 51

| 1

| —

! 100

! colspan=2 | Not Up

| 29

| | 36

| 1

| —

! 66

! colspan=2 | Up

| | 19

| 15

| —

! 34

|-

| colspan=99 |

! rowspan=4 style="background:#ccc" | Incumbent retired

! Total before

| | 5

| 3

| —

! 8

! Held by same party

| —

| | 1

| —

! 1

! Replaced by other party

| colspan="2" | 2 Republicans replaced by 2 Democrats 5 Democrats replaced by 5 Republicans

| —

! 7

! Result after

| 2

| | 6

| —

! 8

! rowspan=6 style="background:#cccccc" | Incumbent ran

! Total before

| | 14

| 12

| —

! 26

! Won re-election

| | 13

| 12

| —

! 25

! Lost re-election

| colspan=2 | 1 Democrat replaced by 1 Republican

| —

! 1

! Lost renomination, held by same party

| —

! 0

! Lost renomination, and party lost

| —

! 0

! Result after

| 13

| —

! 26

! colspan=2 | Net gain/loss

| 4

| | 4

| —

! 4

! colspan=2 | Total elected

| 15

| | 19

| —

! 34

|-

| colspan=99 |

! colspan=2 | Result

! 44

! | 55

! 1

! —

! 100

|-

| colspan=99 |

! rowspan=2 style="background:#cccccc" | Popular vote

! Votes

! | 44,754,618

| 39,920,562

| 186,231

| 754,861

| 2,481,075

! 88,097,347

! Share

! | 50.80%

| 45.31%

| 0.21%

| 0.86%

| 2.82%

! 100%

Sources:

Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections
United States Elections Project at George Mason University </onlyinclude>

Change in composition

Before the elections

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center;"

| | D

| width=10% | D

| | D

| | D

| | I

| rowspan=2 | R

| colspan=9 style="text-align:right" | Majority →

| | R

| | R

After the elections

{| class="wikitable" style="text-align:center;"

| | D

| width=10% | D

| | D

| | D

| | I

| | R

| rowspan=2 | R

| colspan=9 style="text-align:right" | Majority →

| | R

| | R

|- valign=top

! Key:

{| class=wikitable

| align=center width=35px | D

| Democratic

| align=center width=35px | I

| Independent

| align=center width=35px | R

| Republican

Gains and losses

Retirements

[[File:2004 United States Senate elections retirements map.svg|thumb|250px|Map of retirements:

]]

Three Republicans and five Democrats retired instead of seeking re-election.

{| class="wikitable sortable plainrowheaders"

! scope="col" |State

! scope="col" |Senator

! scope="col" | Age at end of term

! scope="col" | Assumed office

! scope="col" |Replaced by

! Colorado

| |

| align="center"| 71

| align="center"| 1993

| |

! Florida

| |

| align="center"| 68

| align="center"| 1987

| |

! Georgia

| |

| align="center"| 72

| align="center"| 2000

| |

! Illinois

| |

| align="center"| 44

| align="center"| 1999

| |

! Louisiana

| |

| align="center"| 60

| align="center"| 1987

| |

! North Carolina

| |

| align="center"| 51

| align="center"| 1999

| |

! Oklahoma

| |

| align="center"| 56

| align="center"| 1981

| |

! South Carolina

| |

| align="center"| 83

| align="center"| 1966

| |

Defeats

Despite several candidates being in danger of losing their re-election bid, South Dakota Democratic senator Tom Daschle was the only incumbent who ran for re-election to be defeated.

{| class="wikitable sortable plainrowheaders"

! scope="col" |State

! scope="col" |Senator

! scope="col" |Assumed office

! scope="col" |Replaced by

! South Dakota

| |

| align="center"| 1987

| |

| align="center"|

Post-election changes

One Democrat resigned on January 17, 2006, and was replaced by a Democratic appointee.

{| class="wikitable sortable plainrowheaders"

! scope="col" |State

! scope="col" |Senator

! scope="col" |Replaced by

! New Jersey (Class 1)

| |

Final pre-election predictions

Several sites and individuals publish predictions of competitive seats. These predictions look at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for reelection) and the other candidates, and the state's partisan lean (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assign ratings to each seat, indicating the predicted advantage that a party has in winning that seat.

Most election predictors used:

"tossup": no advantage
"tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
"lean": slight advantage
"likely" or "favored": significant, but surmountable, advantage
"safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory

Where a site gives a percentage probability as its primary indicator of expected outcome, the chart below classifies a race as follows:

Tossup: 50-55%
Tilt: 56-60%
Lean: 61-75%
Likely: 76-93%
Safe: 94-100%

{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center"

|- style="vertical-align:bottom"

! colspan=1 | Constituency

! colspan=2 | Incumbent

! colspan="9" | 2004 election ratings

|- style="vertical-align:bottom"

! State

! Senator

! data-sort-type="number"| Last election

! align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball

! Result

! Alabama

| |

| data-sort-value="63.24" | 63.24% R

| data-sort-value="67.55" | Shelby 67.55% R

! Alaska

| |

| data-sort-value="0" | Appointed

| data-sort-value="48.58" | Murkowski 48.58% R

! Arizona

| |

| data-sort-value="68.74" | 68.74% R

| data-sort-value="76.74" | McCain 76.74% R

! Arkansas

| |

| data-sort-value="-55.07" | 55.07% D

| data-sort-value="-55.90" | Lincoln 55.90% D

! California

| |

| data-sort-value="-53.06" | 53.06% D

| data-sort-value="-57.71" | Boxer 57.71% D

! Colorado

| |

| data-sort-value="62.49" | 62.49% R

| data-sort-value="-51.30" | Salazar 51.30% D

! Connecticut

| |

| data-sort-value="-65.15" | 65.15% D

| data-sort-value="-66.35" | Dodd 66.35% D

! Florida

| |

| data-sort-value="-62.47" | 62.47% D

| data-sort-value="49.43" | Martínez 49.43% R

! Georgia

| |

| data-sort-value="-58.19" | 58.19% D

| data-sort-value="57.88" | Isakson 57.88% R

! Hawaii

| |

| data-sort-value="-79.18" | 79.18% D

| data-sort-value="-75.51" | Inouye 75.51% D

! Idaho

| |

| data-sort-value="69.54" | 69.54% R

| data-sort-value="99.18" | Crapo 99.18% R

! Illinois

| |

| data-sort-value="50.35" | 50.35% R

| data-sort-value="-69.97" | Obama 69.97% D

! Indiana

| |

| data-sort-value="-63.72" | 63.72% D

| data-sort-value="-61.65" | Bayh 61.65% D

! Iowa

| |

| data-sort-value="68.41" | 68.41% R

| data-sort-value="70.18" | Grassley 70.18% R

! Kansas

| |

| data-sort-value="65.27" | 65.27% R

| data-sort-value="69.16" | Brownback 69.16% R

! Kentucky

| |

| data-sort-value="49.75" | 49.75% R

| data-sort-value="50.66" | Bunning 50.66% R

! Louisiana

| |

| data-sort-value="-64.02" | 64.02% D

| data-sort-value="51.03" | Vitter 51.03% R

! Maryland

| |

| data-sort-value="-70.50" | 70.50% D

| data-sort-value="-64.80" | Mikulski 64.80% D

! Missouri

| |

| data-sort-value="52.68" | 52.68% R

| data-sort-value="56.09" | Bond 56.09% R

! Nevada

| |

| data-sort-value="-47.86" | 47.86% D

| data-sort-value="-61.08" | Reid 61.08% D

! New Hampshire

| |

| data-sort-value="67.84" | 67.84% R

| data-sort-value="66.24" | Gregg 66.24% R

! New York

| |

| data-sort-value="-54.62" | 54.62% D

| data-sort-value="-71.16" | Schumer 71.16% D

! North Carolina

| |

| data-sort-value="-51.15" | 51.15% D

| data-sort-value="51.60" | Burr 51.60% R

! North Dakota

| |

| data-sort-value="-63.16" | 63.16% D

| data-sort-value="-68.28" | Dorgan 68.28% D

! Ohio

| |

| data-sort-value="56.46" | 56.46% R

| data-sort-value="63.85" | Voinovich 63.85% R

! Oklahoma

| |

| data-sort-value="66.38" | 66.38% R

| data-sort-value="52.77" | Coburn 52.77% R

! Oregon

| |

| data-sort-value="-61.05" | 61.05% D

| data-sort-value="-63.39" | Wyden 63.39% D

! Pennsylvania

| |

| data-sort-value="61.34" | 61.34% R

| data-sort-value="52.62" | Specter 52.62% R

! South Carolina

| |

| data-sort-value="-52.70" | 52.70% D

| data-sort-value="53.67" | DeMint 53.67% R

! South Dakota

| |

| data-sort-value="-62.14" | 62.14% D

| data-sort-value="50.58" | Thune 50.58% R

! Utah

| |

| data-sort-value="63.98" | 63.98% R

| data-sort-value="68.73" | Bennett 68.73% R

! Vermont

| |

| data-sort-value="-72.22" | 72.22% D

| data-sort-value="-70.63" | Leahy 70.63% D

! Washington

| |

| data-sort-value="-58.41" | 58.41% D

| data-sort-value="-54.98" | Murray 54.98% D

! Wisconsin

| |

| data-sort-value="-50.55" | 50.55% D

| data-sort-value="-55.35" | Feingold 55.35% D

Race summary

Special elections during the 108th Congress

There were no special elections during the 108th Congress.

Elections leading to the next Congress

In these general elections, the winners were elected for the term beginning January 3, 2005; ordered by state.

All of the elections involved the Class 3 seats.

{| class="wikitable sortable"

|- valign=bottom

! rowspan=2 | State

! colspan=3 | Incumbent

! rowspan=2 | Results

! rowspan=2 | Candidates

! Senator

! Party

! Electoral history

! Alabama

| data-sort-value="1986" | 1986 1992 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! Alaska

| data-sort-value="2002" | 2002

| Interim appointee elected.

| nowrap |

! Arizona

| data-sort-value="1986" | 1986 1992 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! Arkansas

| data-sort-value="1998" | 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! California

| data-sort-value="1992" | 1992 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! Colorado

| data-sort-value="1992" | 1992 1998

| | Incumbent retired. Democratic gain.

| nowrap |

! Connecticut

| data-sort-value="1980" | 1980 1986 1992 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! Florida

| data-sort-value="1986" | 1986 1992 1998

| | Incumbent retired. Republican gain.

| nowrap |

! Georgia

| data-sort-value="2000" | 2000 2000

| | Incumbent retired. Republican gain.

| nowrap |

! Hawaii

| data-sort-value="1962" | 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! Idaho

| data-sort-value="1998" | 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! Illinois

| data-sort-value="1998" | 1998

| | Incumbent retired. Democratic gain.

| nowrap |

! Indiana

| data-sort-value="1998" | 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! Iowa

| data-sort-value="1980" | 1980 1986 1992 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! Kansas

| data-sort-value="1996" | 1996 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! Kentucky

| data-sort-value="1998" | 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! Louisiana

| data-sort-value="1986" | 1986 1992 1998

| | Incumbent retired. Republican gain.

| nowrap |

! Maryland

| data-sort-value="1986" | 1986 1992 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! Missouri

| data-sort-value="1986" | 1986 1992 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! Nevada

| data-sort-value="1986" | 1986 1992 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! New Hampshire

| data-sort-value="1992" | 1992 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! New York

| data-sort-value="1998" | 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! North Carolina

| data-sort-value="1998" | 1998

| | Incumbent retired to run for Vice President. Republican gain.

| nowrap |

! North Dakota

| | Democratic-NPL

| data-sort-value="1992" | 1992 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! Ohio

| data-sort-value="1998" | 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! Oklahoma

| data-sort-value="1980" | 1980 1986 1992 1998

| | Incumbent retired. Republican hold.

| nowrap |

! Oregon

| data-sort-value="1996" | 1996 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! Pennsylvania

| | Republican

| data-sort-value="1980" | 1980 1986 1992 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! South Carolina

| data-sort-value="1966" | 1966 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998

| | Incumbent retired. Republican gain.

| nowrap |

! South Dakota

| data-sort-value="1986" | 1986 1992 1998

| | Incumbent lost re-election. Republican gain.

| nowrap |

! Utah

| data-sort-value="1992" | 1992 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! Vermont

| data-sort-value="1974" | 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! Washington

| data-sort-value="1992" | 1992 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

! Wisconsin

| data-sort-value="1992" | 1992 1998

| Incumbent re-elected.

| nowrap |

Closest races

In seven races the margin of victory was under 10%.

{| class="wikitable sortable"

! District

! Winner

! Margin

| Florida

| data-sort-value=-1 | Republican (flip)

| 1.1%

| South Dakota

| data-sort-value=-1 | Republican (flip)

| 1.2%

| Kentucky

| data-sort-value=-0.5 | Republican

| 1.4%

| Alaska

| data-sort-value=-0.5 | Republican

| 3.0%

| Colorado

| data-sort-value=1.0 | Democratic (flip)

| 3.9%

| North Carolina

| data-sort-value=-1.0 | Republican (flip)

| 4.6%

| South Carolina

| data-sort-value=-1.0 | Republican (flip)

| 9.6%

Alabama

Incumbent Republican Richard Shelby won re-election to a fourth term over Democratic perennial candidate Wayne Sowell.

Shelby, who switched parties ten years prior, had over $11 million cash on hand. Shelby was chairman of the Banking Committee. Wayne Sowell became the first black U.S. Senate nominee of a major party in Alabama.

Alaska

Incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski of Anchorage, sought election to her first full term after being appointed to serve out the rest of her father's unexpired term when he resigned in December 2002 to become Governor of Alaska. Her main challenger was Democratic former governor Tony Knowles, her father's predecessor as governor. Murkowski won by a slight margin.

Although Alaska is heavily Republican, popular opinion had swung against the Murkowski family because of a tax increase passed by Governor Frank Murkowski, Lisa Murkowski's father. In addition, multiple voters disapproved of apparent nepotism in the appointment of Lisa Murkowski to the Senate. Knowles, who as mentioned above preceded Frank Murkowski as governor, had enlisted extensive out-of-state support for his bid to take over Lisa Murkowski's Senate seat. However, veteran Republican senator Ted Stevens taped advertisements warning Alaskans that electing a Democrat could result in less federal dollars for Alaska.