2003 Pacific hurricane season

The 2003 Pacific hurricane season was the first season to feature no major hurricanes (storms of Category 3 intensity or higher on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale) since 1977. The season officially began on May 15, 2003 in the Eastern North Pacific (east of 140°W), and on June 1 in the Central (between 140°W and the International Date Line); both ended on November 30. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most tropical cyclogenesis occurs in these regions of the Pacific. The season featured 16 tropical storms, 7 of which intensified into hurricanes, which was then considered an average season. Damage across the basin reached US$129 million, and 23 people were killed by the storms.

Despite the overall lack of activity, the season produced an unusually large number of tropical cyclones that affected Mexico, with eight tropical cyclones making landfall on either side of Mexico, which was the second highest on record. Tropical Storm Carlos struck Oaxaca in late June, resulting in nine fatalities. In late August, Hurricane Ignacio struck the Baja California peninsula, killing four people and inflicting US$21 million in damage. In September, Hurricane Marty affected the same areas as Ignacio, and was responsible for 12 casualties and US$100 million in damage, making Marty the costliest and deadliest storm of the season. In October, hurricanes Olaf and Nora struck western Mexico as tropical depressions, causing slight damage and one casualty.

Activity in the Central Pacific was below average, with only one tropical depression forming in the basin and one hurricane entering the basin from the East Pacific. In mid-August, Hurricane Jimena passed just to the south of Hawaiʻi; it was the first storm to directly threaten Hawaii in several years. Also, the remnants of Tropical Storm Guillermo moved into the basin on August 12, prior dissipating the following day.

Seasonal forecasts

{| class="toccolours" cellspacing=0 cellpadding=3 style="float:right; margin-left:1em; text-align:right; clear: right;"

|+Predictions of tropical activity in the 2003 season

|- style="background:#CFCFCF; text-align:center;×÷≥"

|align="center"|Source

|align="center"|Date

|align="center"|<span style="font-size: 80%;">Named<br />storms</span>

|align="center"|<span style="font-size: 80%;">Hurricanes</span>

|align="center"|<span style="font-size: 80%;">Major<br />hurricanes</span>

|align="center"|<span style="font-size: 80%;">Ref</span>

|align="left"|Eastern || style="text-align:left;"|Average (1981–2010) || 16 || 9 || 4 ||

|align="left"|Eastern - SMN || style="text-align:left;"|May 13, 2003 || 15 || 6 || 2 ||

|align="left"|Eastern - NOAA || style="text-align:left;"|June 12, 2003 || 11–15 || 6–9 || 2–5 ||

|align="left"|Central || style="text-align:left;"|Average || 4–5 || 1 || – || La Niña conditions generally restrict tropical cyclone development in the Northeast Pacific, which is the opposite of its effect in the Atlantic. On June 12, 2003, NOAA issued a forecast for the East Pacific hurricane season – the first time it had done so. The scientists expected that La Niña conditions would develop, and predicted a 50 percent chance of below normal activity and a 40 percent chance of near normal activity.) The first hurricane, Ignacio, formed on August 24. This is the latest formation of the first hurricane of a season recorded in the East Pacific since reliable satellite observation began in 1966. The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index for the 2003 Pacific hurricane season, at 53.4 units in the Eastern Pacific and 3.3 units in the Central Pacific, places the season among the top 10 least active seasons since 1971, when reliable records began.

thumb|left|upright=.90|In the eastern Pacific, two simultaneous hurricanes on October 6, Nora (left) and Olaf (right)

While the total activity was below average, there was an unusually high number of landfalls in Mexico. Eight Pacific and North Atlantic tropical cyclones had a direct impact in Mexico in 2003, second only to 1971, when nine did so. This is well above the long-term average of 4.2 Atlantic and East Pacific storms affecting Mexico. Five Pacific storms impacted Mexico; Hurricanes Ignacio and Marty both made landfall in the state of Baja California Sur at hurricane intensity.

Activity in the Central Pacific was below average, with only one tropical depression forming in the basin and one hurricane entering the basin from the East Pacific. A third system, Tropical Storm Guillermo, weakened to a remnant low just to the east of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility. Although activity was generally low, Hurricane Jimena was the first direct threat to the Hawaiian Islands for several years and a hurricane watch was issued for the island of Hawaii. Jimena passed to the south, but still brought tropical-storm-force gusts and heavy rain to the island.

Systems

Tropical Storm Andres

An area of disturbed weather developed south of Guatemala on May 10 within a broad area of low pressure. While tracking westward, the disturbance became classifiable by the Dvorak technique on May 18. Following the development of a closed low-level circulation, the disturbance was classified as a tropical depression around 18:00 UTC on May 19 roughly south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas. The depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Andres the next day. Despite increasing wind shear from an anticyclone causing the system's convection to become displaced from the circulation, overall banding features improved, and Andres obtained its peak strength with winds of by 1800 UTC on May 20. A further increase in shear, soon followed by a decrease in ocean temperatures, caused Andres to weaken on May 25. It was downgraded to a tropical depression on May 25, became a post-tropical cyclone at 12:00 UTC that day, and dissipated on May 26 without affecting land.

Tropical Storm Blanca

In mid-June, a tropical wave interacted with a lingering area of disturbed weather near the southwestern Mexican coast. Following an increase in organization, the combined disturbance was classified as a tropical depression at 00:00 UTC on June 17. The storm strengthened and became Tropical Storm Blanca 12 hours later. The storm moved slowly to the west and reached its peak on June 18 with winds; around this time, the cyclone displayed an eye-like feature on weather satellite. Under the influence of strong shear from the southeast, Blanca began to weaken and move erratically, although intermittent bursts of deep convection continued. The storm degenerated to a tropical depression on June 20 and a post-tropical cyclone by 12:00 UTC on June 22. The remnants of Blanca were tracked for an additional two days. There were no effects from Blanca on land.

Tropical Storm Carlos

Tropical Storm Carlos formed from a tropical wave that crossed Central America on June 20. After gradually organizing, the wave was designated a tropical depression at 00:00 UTC on June 26 and further upgraded to Tropical Storm Carlos after twelve hours. The system moved generally northward and developed an eye, which was visible on Puerto Ángel radar. Carlos attained peak winds of shortly before making landfall about west of Puerto Escondido, or about east-southeast of Acapulco.

Carlos produced heavy rainfall across portions of southern Mexico, peaking at in two locations in Guerrero. In northwestern Oaxaca, seven people were killed when the heavy rainfall triggered a mudslide. Mudslides were reported elsewhere in the state, and about 30,000 homes were damaged. Throughout its path, the storm affected about 148,000 people. Monetary damage totaled 86.7 million pesos (2003 MXN, US$8 million). In addition to the seven deaths across Oaxaca, two fishermen were reported missing.

Tropical Storm Enrique

On July 6, a tropical wave entered the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. An area of low pressure developed and began to show signs of organization on July 9. The disturbance was designated a tropical depression around 12:00 UTC on July 10 while located about south-southeast of Baja California Sur. The storm became more organized and was named Tropical Storm Enrique 24 hours later as it tracked west-northwest. The cyclone instead peaked with winds of early on July 12, after which point it encountered cool waters at a high latitude. Accordingly, Enrique rapidly weakened despite low wind shear. The storm degenerated into a remnant low around 00:00 UTC on July 14 and continued to move west before dissipating three days later.

Tropical Storm Felicia

A tropical wave passed over Central America on July 12 and began to show signs of organization south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec two days later, prompting Dvorak classifications on the system. As it continued to develop, the NHC designated the system a tropical depression at 18:00 UTC on July 17 about south of Manzanillo. However, the storm remained disorganized and peaked with winds late on July 18. The storm gradually weakened under increasing shear as it headed west, weakening back to a tropical depression on July 20 and degenerating to a remnant low around 12:00 UTC on July 23. After a west-northwestward turn, the remnant low entered the Central Pacific, where it dissipated well east of Hawaii on July 24. Felicia did not impact land.

Tropical Storm Guillermo

A tropical wave entered the eastern north Pacific Ocean on August 1 and began to show signs of organization three days later, including the development of convection and the formation of a surface low. It acquired sufficient organization to be deemed a tropical depression by 06:00 UTC on August 7 roughly southwest of Cabo San Lucas. Although the system was forecast to remain under tropical storm intensity and ultimately dissipate, it became more organized as it moved to the west. At 00:00 UTC on August 8, the depression was upgraded to Tropical Storm Guillermo. Later that day, Guillermo reached its peak strength with winds. It maintained this strength for a full day, until outflow from the developing Tropical Storm Hilda about to its east disrupted its convection. Guillermo weakened into a tropical depression on August 11, and it became further disheveled as wind shear increased from the west. Associated deep convection collapsed on August 12, and Guillermo degenerated to a remnant low around 18:00 UTC. The remnant low entered the Central Pacific and interacted with another weak low-level circulation that would later become Tropical Depression One-C prior to dissipation on August 13.

Tropical Storm Hilda

On August 5, a tropical wave south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec began to produce persistent thunderstorm activity. The resultant disturbance moved west and developed into Tropical Depression Eight-E approximately to the south of Cabo San Lucas around 06:00 UTC on August 9. Owing to the system's impressive outflow across its western quadrant, forecasters predicted additional intensification to hurricane strength. The depression became Tropical Storm Hilda around 00:00 UTC on August 10, but it failed to intensify beyond winds of as easterly wind shear increased. Hilda moved west-northwest initially, but increasingly cooler waters weakened the cyclone, and low-level flow across the East Pacific turned the storm west. It dissipated on August 13 having never approached land.

Tropical Depression One-C

In mid-August, an area of active weather formed within the monsoon trough southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. At 18:00 UTC on August 15, this disturbance organized into Tropical Depression One-C. The incipient cyclone moved west and faced strong wind shear owing to a large upper-level trough to its northeast. Thus, One-C did not attain winds greater than , and it instead degenerated to a remnant low around 00:00 UTC on August 17 after losing its associated convection. The system remained south of both the Hawaiian Islands and Johnston Atoll and eventually crossed into the West Pacific basin on August 20. Ignacio reached its peak intensity on August 26 as a Category 2 hurricane with winds of . The storm tracked northwest across the southern Gulf of California and began to weaken due to land interaction, ultimately making landfall with winds of just to the east of La Paz. Ignacio weakened once inland and dissipated early on August 28 over central Baja California.

The slow motion of Ignacio produced heavy rainfall across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula, including a peak 24‑hour total of in Ciudad Constitución, which was beneficial in ending an ongoing drought but resulted in severe flooding. It forced the closure of roads and airports in La Paz. Overall, Ignacio was responsible for approximately US$21 million in damage. Four people were killed by the storm, Six municipalities in Baja California Sur were declared disaster areas. The remnants of Ignacio produced thunderstorm activity in high terrain areas of central California, resulting in 3,500 customers losing power, over 300 lightning strikes, and 14 forest fires.

Hurricane Jimena

An area of disturbed weather formed on August 26, 2003, and drifted westward. At 06:00 UTC on August 28, an area of disturbed weather within the Intertropical Convergence Zone developed into Tropical Depression Ten-E some east of the Hawaiian Islands. The storm began to steadily intensify as it tracked over warm ocean waters, attaining tropical storm status six hours later. Jimena continued to intensify as it moved westward. On August 29, satellite imagery showed a well defined eye developing, and that day, Jimena attained hurricane status. As the hurricane neared the Central Pacific Basin, it winds reached a peak intensity of and its barometric pressure fell to 970 millibars on August 30. Later that day, Jimena crossed into the central Pacific, where it began weakening due to increased wind shear. On September 1, it fell to tropical storm status. That day, the storm passed about to the south of the southern tip of Big Island. Further weakening brought the cyclone back to tropical depression intensity on September 3. It crossed the International Date Line on September 5, becoming the first storm to exist in all three Pacific basins since 1999's Hurricane Dora. Later that day, the circulation dissipated about southeast of Wake Island.

The Central Pacific Hurricane Center issuing a Hurricane Watch and tropical storm warning for the Big Island of Hawaii, and a flash flood watch was also issued. Officials closed beaches and canceled outdoor activities. The American Red Cross opened shelters and provided emergency services. As Jimena passed south of Hawaii as a weakening tropical storm, it brought high winds and heavy rainfall to the island. High wind gusts of were reported in South Point and Kahoolawe. The storm dropped 6–10 inches of rain across the Big Island. Coastal sections of the Hawaiian Islands reported high surf ranging from high. Offshore, high surf and strong currents brought by the storm resulted in 350 swimmers being rescued by the United States Coast Guard, residents, and state and local police and fire departments.

Tropical Storm Kevin

A tropical wave entered the East Pacific on August 21 but remained devoid of any convective activity until August 28. A broad surface low developed on August 29 but its associated convective activity remained poorly organized. Tracking west-northwest around the western periphery of a ridge over Mexico, the disturbance began receiving Dvorak classifications on September 3. By 12:00 UTC that day, an increase in organization prompted the designation of Tropical Depression Eleven-E roughly south-southwest of the tip of Baja California. After formation, the system was inhibited by its broad circulation and its positioning near cooler waters. Nevertheless, the depression reached tropical storm strength on September 4, and Kevin attained peak winds of then. This peak intensity lasted for just six hours as the cyclone weakened back to a tropical depression. At 06:00 UTC on September 6, the system degenerated to a remnant low, which persisted for four days before dissipation. Tropical Storm Kevin did not impact land.

Hurricane Linda

A tropical wave entered the East Pacific on September 6. Convection began to increase along its axis on September 9; three days later, a broad surface low developed. Around 12:00 UTC on September 13, the disturbance organized into Tropical Depression Twelve-E about to the southwest of Manzanillo. The cyclone moved to the northwest and was classified as a tropical storm at 12:00 UTC on September 14. At 12:00 UTC on September 15, Linda was upgraded to a hurricane and reached its peak strength of .

Hurricane Marty

A tropical wave moved into the East Pacific on September 10, and the convection associated with it gradually increased. At 18:00 UTC on September 18, while the system was positioned about south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, it organized into Tropical Depression Thirteen-E. The depression strengthened as it headed toward the Baja California Peninsula, becoming a tropical storm after 12 hours and a hurricane around 00:00 UTC on September 21. High pressure to its west facilitated Marty's development, while favorable conditions allowed it to become a Category 2 hurricane with peak winds of early on September 22. Marty then moved northward at an increased speed before making landfall about northeast of Cabo San Lucas. After moving over the southern tip of the peninsula, Marty moved up the western coast of the Gulf of California, gradually weakening as it did so. The storm weakened to a tropical storm on September 23 and a tropical depression later that day. After making a second landfall near Puerto Peñasco as a tropical depression around 18:00 UTC on September 24, the system degenerated to a remnant low six hours later. Its remnants meandered over the northern Gulf of California prior to dissipating two days later.

Hurricane Marty was the deadliest storm of the 2003 Pacific hurricane season and was responsible for 12 deaths. Five people drowned after their cars were swept away by floodwaters while trying to cross a flooded stream. The floods also damaged about 4,000 homes. Overall, 6,000 people were affected and total damage from the storm was estimated at US$100 million, making Marty the costliest East Pacific storm of the year. Low wind shear and warm waters favored development, and the depression intensified into Tropical Storm Nora early on October 2. A day later, an eye started developing in the center, which preceded Nora intensifying into a hurricane on October 4. That day, it attained peak winds of 100 mph (160 km/h) by later that day. Although the NHC anticipated further strengthening to major hurricane status, Nora weakened due to increased wind shear from the developing Tropical Storm Olaf to its east. By October 5, the eye of Nora was no longer evident on satellite imagery, which indicated the beginning of a weakening trend. The convection became ragged, and on October 6 the winds decreased below hurricane-force. Around the same time, a strong approaching mid-level trough caused Nora to slow and turn to the east. and by October 7 all of the deep convection had dissipated. As a result, it was downgraded to a tropical depression, Nora rapidly accelerated towards the east-northeast toward Mexico in response to the approaching trough. Thunderstorms redeveloped over the center as Nora approached western Mexico, and it made landfall near Mazatlán, Sinaloa early on October 9. It dissipated shortly thereafter over the high terrain of western Mexico. Rainfall from Nora extended was also reported along the Baja California peninsula, and also extended from the coastline northward to near Texas. Moisture from Nora and Olaf interacted with an upper-level low to produce flooding across parts of Texas, forcing a family to evacuate in McGregor. The system also spawned a tornado in Sugar Land that damaged four buildings, including a school.

Hurricane Olaf

Olaf originated from a tropical wave that exited the coast of Africa on September 17. Over the next two weeks, it moved westbound into the northeastern Pacific Ocean. On October 2, a low-level circulation was noted on satellite imagery off the south coast of Mexico, which became better organized. On October 3, Tropical Depression Eighteen-E developed about 375 mi (600 km) south of Acapulco. Moving northwestward, the depression intensified into Tropical Storm Olaf. On October 5, radar imagery indicated a partial eyewall. Based on this, the NHC upgraded Olaf to hurricane status, with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph (120 km/h) and a barometric pressure of 987 millibars. Olaf was hurricane for only six hours, and it soon became less organized as the motion slowed. By early October 6, Olaf was only a minimal tropical storm, although it reorganized after turning back north toward the coast. On October 8, Olaf made landfall with winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) near Manzanillo. Olaf weakened rapidly over the high terrain of the coast. Within 24 hours, Olaf had dissipated inland. Olaf was a part of a rainy year in Mexico, One person was killed, Moisture from the remnants of Nora and Olaf interacted with an upper-level low to produce heavy rainfall across Texas, producing flooding near Waco that forced a family to evacuate in McGregor. The floodwaters closed portions of Interstate 35, U.S. Route 84, and Texas State Highway 36. It also spawned a tornado in Sugar Land that damaged four buildings, including a school.

Hurricane Patricia

The final storm of the 2003 season began as a tropical wave that crossed Central America on October 17. The incipient disturbance slowly organized as it moved west-northwest south a ridge, organizing into a tropical depression around 12:00 UTC on October 20 about south of Acapulco. Six hours later, it intensified into Tropical Storm Patricia while paralleling the Mexico coastline well offshore. As banding features increased in association with the cyclone, and as it developed an eye, Patricia became the season's final hurricane around 12:00 UTC on October 21. It peaked with winds of twelve hours later, despite predictions of a much stronger storm. On October 22, the cyclone encountered wind shear associated with an upper-level trough near Baja California, and its circulation quickly became displaced from associated thunderstorm activity. It fell below hurricane strength that day but fluctuated in intensity through October 25. Early that day, Patricia weakened to a tropical depression, and by 06:00 UTC on October 26, it degenerated to a remnant low. The low turned west and dissipated twelve hours later. This was the same list used for the 1997 season, except for Patricia, which replaced Pauline. No names were retired from the list by the World Meteorological Organization following the season, and it was used again for the 2009 season.

{| style="width:90%;"

Andres
Blanca
Carlos
Dolores
Enrique
Felicia
Guillermo*
Hilda

Ignacio
Jimena*
Kevin
Linda
Marty
Nora
Olaf
Patricia

<div style="color: #888;">Rick (unused)</div>
<div style="color: #888;">Sandra (unused)</div>
<div style="color: #888;">Terry (unused)</div>
<div style="color: #888;">Vivian (unused)</div>
<div style="color: #888;">Waldo (unused)</div>
<div style="color: #888;">Xina (unused)</div>
<div style="color: #888;">York (unused)</div>
<div style="color: #888;">Zelda (unused)</div>

For storms that form in the North Pacific between 140°W and the International Date Line, the names come from a series of four rotating lists. Names are used one after the other without regard to year, and when the bottom of one list is reached, the next named storm receives the name at the top of the next list.

Season effects

This is a table of all of the storms that formed in the 2003 Pacific hurricane season. It includes their name, duration, peak classification and intensities, areas affected, damage, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures are in 2003 USD.