The 2003 Lower Saxony state election was held on 2 February 2003 to elect the members of the 15th Landtag of Lower Saxony. The incumbent Social Democratic Party (SPD) majority government led by Minister-President Sigmar Gabriel was defeated. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) came up one seat short of a majority, and formed a coalition with the Free Democratic Party (FDP). CDU leader Christian Wulff was subsequently elected minister-president.
Background
The election in Lower Saxony had larger significance than just in the state itself. Defeat for the Social Democrats in the election would mean they lost their slim majority in the upper house of the German parliament, the Bundesrat. It was thought this might cause the collapse of Gerhard Schröder's national coalition government between the Social Democrats and the Green Party.
Campaign and issues
The economy was seen as the most important issue in the election, with the Social Democrats suffering as a result.
Opinion polls in December 2002 showed the Christian Democrats in the lead with 43% as against 34% for the Social Democrats.
Parties
The table below lists parties represented in the 14th Landtag of Lower Saxony.
{| class="wikitable"
! rowspan=2 colspan=3| Name
! rowspan=2| Ideology
! rowspan=2| Leader(s)
! colspan=2| 1998 result
|-
! Votes (%)
! Seats
|-
| bgcolor= |
| align=center| SPD
| Social Democratic Party of Germany<br>
| Social democracy
| Sigmar Gabriel
| align=center| 47.9%
|
|-
| bgcolor= |
| align=center| CDU
| Christian Democratic Union of Germany<br>
| Christian democracy
| Christian Wulff
| align=center| 35.9%
|
|-
| bgcolor= |
| align=center| Grüne
| Alliance 90/The Greens<br>
| Green politics
|
| align=center| 7.0%
|
|}
Opinion polling
{| class="wikitable sortable" style="text-align:center;font-size:90%;line-height:14px;"
|- style="height:40px;"
! style="width:160px;" rowspan="2"| Polling firm
! style="width:130px;" rowspan="2"| Fieldwork date
! style="width:35px;" rowspan="2"| Sample<br>size
! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| SPD
! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| CDU
! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| Grüne
! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;"| FDP
! class="unsortable" style="width:40px;" rowspan="2"| Others
! style="width:30px;" rowspan="2"| Lead
|-
! style="background:;"|
! style="background:;"|
! style="background:;"|
! style="background:;"|
|- style="background:#E9E9E9;"
| 2003 state election
| data-sort-value="2003-02-02"| 2 Feb 2003
| –
| 33.4
| style="background:#D7D5D7;"| 48.3
| 7.6
| 8.1
| 2.5
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 14.9
|-
| Forsa
| data-sort-value="2003-01-31"| 27–30 Jan 2003
| 1,014
| 33
| style="background:#D7D5D7;"| 48
| 8
| 7
| 4
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 15
|-
| Forsa
| data-sort-value="2003-01-29"| 20–24 Jan 2003
| 1,103
| 35
| style="background:#D7D5D7;"| 48
| 8
| 6
| 3
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 13
|-
| Emnid
| data-sort-value="2003-01-23"| 23 Jan 2003
| ?
| 37
| style="background:#D7D5D7;"| 46
| 9
| 5
| 3
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 9
|-
| Infratest dimap
| data-sort-value="2003-01-22"| 16–20 Jan 2003
| 1,000
| 36
| style="background:#D7D5D7;"| 48
| 7
| 5
| 4
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 12
|-
| Forsa
| data-sort-value="2003-01-22"| 13–18 Jan 2003
| 1,008
| 36
| style="background:#D7D5D7;"| 48
| 8
| 5
| 3
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 12
|-
| Infratest dimap
| data-sort-value="2003-01-15"| 9–13 Jan 2003
| 1,000
| 37
| style="background:#D7D5D7;"| 46
| 8
| 6
| 3
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 9
|-
| Forsa
| data-sort-value="2003-01-15"| 6–10 Jan 2003
| 1,027
| 37
| style="background:#D7D5D7;"| 46
| 9
| 5
| 3
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 9
|-
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen
| data-sort-value="2003-01-10"| 6–9 Jan 2003
| 1,044
| 37
| style="background:#D7D5D7;"| 45
| 8
| 6
| 4
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 8
|-
| Forsa
| data-sort-value="2003-01-07"| 27 Dec 2002–3 Jan 2003
| 1,122
| 36
| style="background:#D7D5D7;"| 46
| 10
| 5
| 3
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 10
|-
| Infratest dimap
| data-sort-value="2002-12-06"| 2–4 Dec 2002
| 1,000
| 40
| style="background:#D7D5D7;"| 45
| 7
| 5
| 3
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5
|-
| Emnid
| data-sort-value="2002-11-22"| 14–20 Nov 2002
| 1,003
| 34
| style="background:#D7D5D7;"| 43
| 12
| 6
| 5
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 9
|-
| Forsa
| data-sort-value="2002-09-23"| 23 Sep 2002
| ?
| style="background:#FFCCCC;"| 47
| 36.5
| 7.5
| 4.5
| 4.5
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 11.5
|-
| Emnid
| data-sort-value="2002-09-06"| 30 Aug–4 Sep 2002
| 1,000
| style="background:#FFCCCC;"| 42
| 38
| 7
| 8
| 5
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 4
|-
| Infratest dimap
| data-sort-value="2002-06-14"| 14 Jun 2002
| 1,000
| style="background:#FFCCCC;"| 45
| 35
| 6
| 11
| 3
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 10
|-
| Emnid
| data-sort-value="2002-05-31"| 31 May 2002
| ?
| style="background:#FFCCCC;"| 39
| 37
| 6
| 12
| 6
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2
|-
| Forsa
| data-sort-value="2002-04-17"| 17 Apr 2002
| ?
| style="background:#FFCCCC;"| 43
| 41
| 6
| 4
| 6
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 2
|-
| Emnid
| data-sort-value="2002-03-01"| 21–27 Feb 2002
| 1,000
| style="background:#FFCCCC;"| 43
| 37
| 7
| 8
| 5
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 6
|-
| Forsa
| data-sort-value="2002-03-01"| 11–27 Feb 2002
| 1,327
| style="background:#FFCCCC;"| 43
| 39
| 6
| 5
| 7
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 4
|-
| Infratest dimap
| data-sort-value="2001-08-31"| 31 Aug 2001
| ?
| style="background:#FFCCCC;"| 44
| 36
| 6
| 9
| 5
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 8
|-
| Forsa
| data-sort-value="2001-06-22"| 22 Jun 2001
| ?
| style="background:#FFCCCC;"| 46
| 37
| 7
| 5
| 5
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 9
|-
| Infratest dimap
| data-sort-value="2001-02-20"| 20 Feb 2001
| ?
| style="background:#FFCCCC;"| 48
| 35
| 7
| 5
| 5
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 13
|-
| Forsa
| data-sort-value="1999-10-28"| 28 Oct 1999
| ?
| 41
| style="background:#D7D5D7;"| 46
| 6
| 4
| 3
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5
|-
| Infratest dimap
| data-sort-value="1999-10-28"| 21–24 Oct 1999
| 1,000
| 41
| style="background:#D7D5D7;"| 46
| 5
| 4
| 4
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5
|- style="background:#E9E9E9;"
| 1998 state election
| data-sort-value="1998-03-01"| 1 Mar 1998
| –
| style="background:#FFCCCC;"| 47.9
| 35.9
| 7.0
| 4.9
| 4.3
| style="background:;color:#FFFFFF;"| 12.0
|}
Election result
|-
! colspan="2" | Party
! Votes
! %
! +/-
! Seats
! +/-
! Seats %
|-
| bgcolor=|
| align=left | Christian Democratic Union (CDU)
| align=right| 1,925,055
| align=right| 48.3
| align=right| 12.4
| align=right| 91
| align=right| 29
| align=right| 49.7
|-
| bgcolor=|
| align=left | Social Democratic Party (SPD)
| align=right| 1,330,156
| align=right| 33.4
| align=right| 14.5
| align=right| 63
| align=right| 20
| align=right| 34.4
|-
| bgcolor=|
| align=left | Free Democratic Party (FDP)
| align=right| 323,107
| align=right| 8.1
| align=right| 3.2
| align=right| 15
| align=right| 15
| align=right| 8.2
|-
| bgcolor=|
| align=left | Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne)
| align=right| 304,532
| align=right| 7.6
| align=right| 0.6
| align=right| 14
| align=right| 2
| align=right| 7.7
|-
! colspan=8|
|-
| bgcolor=#63B8FF|
| align=left | Party for a Rule of Law Offensive (Schill party)
| align=right| 40,342
| align=right| 1.0
| align=right| New
| align=right| 0
| align=right| New
| align=right| 0
|-
| bgcolor=|
| align=left | Party of Democratic Socialism (PDS)
| align=right| 21,560
| align=right| 0.5
| align=right| 0.5
| align=right| 0
| align=right| ±0
| align=right| 0
|-
| bgcolor=|
| align=left | Others
| align=right| 39,257
| align=right| 1.0
| align=right|
| align=right| 0
| align=right| ±0
| align=right| 0
|-
! align=right colspan=2| Total
! align=right| 3,984,009
! align=right| 100.0
! align=right|
! align=right| 183
! align=right| 26
! align=right|
|-
! align=right colspan=2| Voter turnout
! align=right|
! align=right| 67.0
! align=right| 6.8
! align=right|
! align=right|
! align=right|
|}