2003 Atlantic hurricane season

The 2003 Atlantic hurricane season was a very active season with tropical cyclogenesis occurring before and after the official bounds of the season—the first such occurrence since the 1970 season. The season produced 21 tropical cyclones, of which 16 developed into named storms; seven of those attained hurricane status, of which three reached major hurricane status. The strongest hurricane of the season was Hurricane Isabel, which reached Category 5 status on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale northeast of the Lesser Antilles; Isabel later struck North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane, causing $5.5 billion in damage (2003 USD) and a total of 51 deaths across the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States.

Although the bounds of the season are typically from June 1 to November 30, the season began early with the formation of Subtropical Storm Ana on April 20, and it ended relatively late on December 11 with the dissipation of Tropical Storm Peter. In early September, Hurricane Fabian struck Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane, where it was the worst hurricane since 1926; on the island it caused four deaths and $300 million in damage (2003 USD). Hurricane Juan caused considerable destruction to Nova Scotia, particularly Halifax, as a Category 2 hurricane, the first hurricane of significant strength to hit the province since 1893. Additionally, Hurricanes Claudette and Erika struck Texas and Mexico, respectively, as minimal hurricanes. In December, Tropical Storm Odette struck the Dominican Republic, and Tropical Storm Peter formed in the eastern portion of the basin.

Seasonal forecasts

{| class="toccolours" cellspacing=0 cellpadding=3 style="float:right; margin-left:1em; text-align:right; clear: right;"

|+Predictions of tropical activity in the 2003 season

|- style="background:#CFCFCF; text-align:center;×÷≥"

|align="center"|Source

|align="center"|Date

|align="center"|Named storms

|align="center"|Hurricanes

|align="center"|Major hurricanes

|align="left"|CSU

|align="left"|Average (1950–2000)

|9.6

|5.9

|2.3

|align="left"|NOAA

|align="left"|Average

|11

|align="left"|NOAA

|align="left"|May 19, 2003

|11–15

|6–9

|2–4

|align="left"|CSU

|align="left"|April 4, 2003

|12

|align="left"|CSU

|align="left"|May 30, 2003

|14

|align="left"|CSU

|align="left"|August 6, 2003

|14

| style="text-align:center;" colspan="2"|Actual activity

|16

Pre-season outlook

On May 19, prior to the start of the season, NOAA forecasters issued a 55% probability of above normal activity. The forecasters predicted 11–15 tropical storms, 6–9 of those becoming hurricanes, and 2–4 of those hurricanes reaching at least Category 3 strength on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale. The above normal activity predicted was due to the likelihood of La Niña developing in the season.

Noted hurricane expert Dr. William M. Gray on April 4 predicted twelve named storms, with eight reaching hurricane strength and three of the eight reaching Category 3 strength. The prediction issued on May 30 was similar, increasing the named storms to fourteen. The synoptic pattern of the season prior to June 1 resembled other previous seasons, with the 1952, 1954, 1964, 1966, and 1998 seasons considered the best analogs for the season. The prediction also included a 68% probability for a hurricane landfall along the United States.

Mid-season outlook

On August 6, Dr. Gray announced he had maintained his previous prediction; with an active start of the season, the rest of the season was forecast to have been only slightly above average, due to an anticipated overall less favorable environment across the Atlantic Ocean. A day later, NOAA released an updated prediction as well, with a 60% probability of above normal activity, with 12–15 named storms, 7–9 hurricanes, and 3–4 major hurricanes expected.

A normal season, as defined by NOAA, has 6–14 tropical storms, 4–8 of which reach hurricane strength, and 1–3 of those reaching Category 3 strength.

Seasonal summary

270px|thumb|right|Three simultaneous tropical cyclones on September 7, Henri (left), Fabian (center) and Isabel (right).

The official beginning of the season was on June 1, 2003, though Subtropical Storm Ana formed on April 20, well before the start to the season. Starting at the official start of the season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing five-day forecasts, extending from the three-day forecasts issued since 1964. Officials conducted tests during the previous two seasons, indicating the new five-day forecasts would be as accurate as the three-day forecasts were 15 years earlier. The tropics were active and well ahead of climatology in the early portion of the season, with the seventh tropical depression forming by the end of July. The season officially ended on November 30, 2003,

Overall, the season's activity was reflected with a high cumulative accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) rating of 176. ACE is, broadly speaking, a measure of the power of the hurricane multiplied by the length of time it existed, so storms that last a long time, as well as particularly strong hurricanes, like Fabian and Isabel, have high ACEs. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on tropical systems at or exceeding 34 knots ( or tropical storm strength. Subtropical cyclones are excluded from the total.

A total of eight tropical cyclones made landfall on Mexico from either the Atlantic or the Pacific Ocean, which was the greatest total since the record of nine in 1971. Seven deaths occurred in Mexico from Atlantic hurricanes. Six tropical cyclones made landfall along the coast of the United States during the season, including two hurricanes. The first, Claudette, struck southeastern Texas in July. Several cyclones impacted Bermuda during the season, most significantly Hurricane Fabian. It was the island's costliest hurricane on record, with a damage total of$300 million. Fabian was also the island's first deadly hurricane since 1926, when it washed away two cars on the causeway between St. George's Parish and St. David's Island.

Systems

Tropical Storm Ana

The origins of Ana were from a non-tropical low pressure area that formed about south-southwest of Bermuda on April 18, from the interaction of an upper-level trough and a surface front. On April 19, the non-tropical low began producing sporadic convection, or thunderstorms, as a small inner core formed. The system executed a loop and gradually became dissociated from the front. Early on April 20, the system developed into Subtropical Storm Ana while located about west of Bermuda. By the time of its formation, Ana was moving generally eastward while continuing to organize and become more tropical. At 00:00 UTC on April 21, the NHC estimated that Ana transitioned into a tropical storm, with peak winds of 60 mph (95 km/h). This was based on estimates from the Hebert-Poteat technique and data from QuikSCAT. This made Ana the first recorded Atlantic tropical storm in April. On April 24, Ana merged with an approaching cold front and became an extratropical cyclone. The extratropical storm accelerated east-northeastward before losing its identity within the frontal zone on April 27 southeast of the Azores. The storm dropped of precipitation in a six-day period at the Bermuda International Airport. Swells from the storm impacted the coast of Florida. As an extratropical storm, the remnants of Ana dropped of precipitation in the city of Ponta Delgada in the Azores. Moisture from the remnants of Ana also produced beneficial rainfall in the United Kingdom.

Tropical Depression Two

A tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa on June 6. Tracking westward at a low latitude, it encountered favorable environmental conditions, leading to an increase in convection. Early on June 11, it developed into Tropical Depression Two about east-northeast of French Guiana. The depression initially had outflow and rainbands. However, the convection quickly diminished and became displaced to the northeast of the center. Late on June 11, the depression degenerated into an open tropical wave about east-southeast of Barbados.

Tropical Storm Bill

Tropical Storm Bill developed from a tropical wave on June 29 to the north of the Yucatán Peninsula. It slowly organized as it moved northward, and reached a peak of shortly before making landfall west of Cocodrie, Louisiana. Bill quickly weakened over land, and as it accelerated to the northeast, moisture from the storm, combined with cold air from an approaching cold front, produced an outbreak of 34 tornadoes. Bill became extratropical on July 2, and was absorbed by the cold front later that day.

Upon making landfall on Louisiana, the storm produced a moderate storm surge, causing tidal flooding. In a city in the northeastern portion of the state, the surge breached a levee, which flooded many homes in the town. Moderate winds combined with wet soil knocked down trees, which then hit a few houses and power lines, and left hundreds of thousands without electric power. Further inland, tornadoes from the storm produced localized moderate damage. Throughout its path, Tropical Storm Bill caused around $50 million in damage (2003 USD) and four deaths.

The precursor cyclone caused light damage in the Lesser Antilles, and waves from the hurricane caused an indirect death off of Florida. High winds downed many trees along the coast, causing one direct and one indirect death. Damage was estimated at $180 million (2003 USD). The convection organized further, developing banding features, and the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Danny early on July 17. The storm moved around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge, curving to the northeast over warmer than usual water temperatures for the latitude. Danny attained hurricane status late on July 18, while located approximately 525 miles (850 km) south of St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador. The hurricane was embedded within a higher than average surrounding pressure field; as a result, the minimum central pressure was an unusually high 1000 mbar. Danny maintained hurricane status for about 24 hours, until being affected by cooler waters and stronger wind shear. Late on July 19, it weakened into a tropical storm, and fell to tropical depression status the next day. Danny continued around the northern periphery of the ridge, turning to the east and southeast. On July 21, Danny degenerated into a remnant area of low pressure. A area of thunderstorms became more concentrated amid favorable conditions. Late on July 19, the NHC classified it as Tropical Depression Six about east of the Lesser Antilles. Several islands in the Lesser Antilles issued tropical storm warnings and watches. The depression degenerated into a tropical wave late on July 21. The remnants brought a few showers to the Lesser Antilles. The northern portion of the wave axis split and developed into Tropical Depression Seven. A mid- to lower-level circulation developed within the system at it tracked generally north-northwestward, and based on surface and satellite observations, it is estimated the system developed into Tropical Depression Seven at 1200 UTC on July 25 about east of Daytona Beach, Florida. The system was embedded in an environment characterized by high surface pressures. Tracking through an area of cool water temperatures, Early on July 26 it moved ashore on St. Catherines Island, Georgia, and after steadily weakening over land it dissipated on July 27. The depression dropped light to moderate rainfall from Florida to the coast of North Carolina, peaking at in Savannah, Georgia.

Hurricane Erika

On August 8, a low detached from a frontal system well to the east of Bermuda, and began generating convection after passing beneath a cold-core low the next day. The system moved rapidly westward, reaching the northwestern Bahamas on August 13, and southern Florida the next day. Late on August 14, Tropical Storm Erika formed in the eastern Gulf of Mexico after developing a surface circulation. The storm strengthened in an environment of low wind shear, with well-established outflow and rainbands. Erika turned to the west-southwest early on August 16 as it approached the western gulf, and an eye became evident on radar. At 10:30 UTC that day, Erika attained hurricane status while moving ashore near Boca San Rafael, Tamaulipas, with peak winds of 75 mph (120 km/h), with a minimum pressure of . The NHC originally classified it as a tropical storm, but later reclassified Erika based on Doppler-wind estimates. Erika rapidly weakened over the mountainous Sierra Madre Oriental, and its low-level circulation dissipated early on August 17. The mid-level circulation crossed Mexico and produced another tropical disturbance in the Gulf of California, which dissipated by August 20.

The precursor disturbance dropped heavy precipitation while moving across Florida, and also produced waves. The threat of Erika led to the evacuation of 51 oil platforms and 3 oil rigs in the western Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane warnings were issued from La Pesca, Tamaulipas, to Baffin Bay, Texas. Rainfall in Mexico peaked at in Magueyes, Tamaulipas. There were 30 injuries and two deaths in Nuevo León. In Montemorelos, two people died while driving across a partially flooded bridge. Throughout Mexico, 20,000 people lost power due to the storm. The storm caused minor flooding and beach erosion along South Padre Island, with strong waves reaching as far north as Corpus Christi.

Tropical Depression Nine

A strong tropical wave exited the coast of Africa on August 14, and proceeded westward. On August 17, a weak area of low pressure developed, and the thunderstorms increased on the next day. On August 19, the system moved through the Lesser Antilles, and it became more organized over the eastern Caribbean. Ship reports indicated that the system developed into Tropical Depression Nine on August 21, about 260 miles (415 km) south of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Upper-level outflow remained well-defined, though convection waned near the center early on August 22. Strong southwesterly wind shear caused the depression to degenerate into a tropical wave late on August 22, south of the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic.

The depression dropped of precipitation on Puerto Rico, leading to floodwaters that entered 10 houses and prohibited passage of some streets. Additionally, a mudslide occurred at Caguas, while a river overflowed in Río Grande but returned to normal levels within hours. Damage in Puerto Rico totaled $20,000. Flooding was also reported in eastern Jamaica.

Waves generated by Fabian slightly damaged some boats in Antigua and Barbuda, while Puerto Rico reported eroded beaches and part of a construction site being carried away, inflicting about $30,000 in damage. One person drowned at the beach of Isla Verde. In the Dominican Republic, several families evacuated from Nagua after rough seas flooded some homes. The storm surge from the hurricane stranded one vehicle with three police officers and another with a resident on the causeway between St. George's Parish and St. David's Island, later washing both vehicles into Castle Harbour; all four were killed. Damage on the island totaled $300 million. Elsewhere, strong waves from the hurricane killed a surfer in North Carolina and caused three deaths off of Newfoundland when a fishing vessel sank.

In Mexico, Grace's outerbands brought rainfall to the Yucatán Peninsula and Tamaulipas. The storm produced light to moderate precipitation from Texas through the eastern United States, peaking at at Spindletop Bayou. Near where it made landfall, Grace produced flooding of low-lying areas and light beach erosion. Damage in Texas totaled approximately $313,000. In Oklahoma and southern Missouri, the remnants of the storm caused localized flooding. Several other states observed rainfall from Grace and its remnants,

Tropical Storm Henri

On August 22, a tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa, and it remained disorganized until reaching the eastern Gulf of Mexico on September 1. A tropical disturbance developed into Tropical Depression Twelve on September 3 about west of Tampa, Florida. It moved eastward and strengthened into Tropical Storm Henri on September 5, and despite strong wind shear it intensified to reach peak winds of later that day. Subsequently, it quickly weakened, and it struck the western Florida coast as a tropical depression. On September 8 it degenerated into a remnant low-pressure area off the coast of North Carolina, and after moving ashore near Cape Hatteras, it crossed the Mid-Atlantic states and dissipated on September 17 over New England.

Henri was responsible for locally heavy rainfall across Florida, but damage was minimal. In Delaware, the rainfall caused record-breaking river flooding, with part of the Red Clay Creek experiencing a 500-year flood, and the system left 109,000 residents without power in Pennsylvania. and it continued to gradually strengthen because of light wind shear and warm waters. Isabel strengthened to a hurricane on September 7, and the following day it attained major hurricane status. Its intensity fluctuated over the subsequent days as it passed north of the Lesser Antilles, and peaked with winds of 165 mph (270 km/h) and a minimum pressure of on September 11, a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale. The hurricane oscillated between Category 4 and Category 5 status over the following four days before weakening due to wind shear. On September 18, Isabel made landfall between Cape Lookout and Ocracoke Island in North Carolina with winds of 105 mph (165 km/h). It continued northwestward, becoming extratropical over western Pennsylvania before being absorbed by a larger storm over Ontario on September 19. Coastal areas suffered from waves and its powerful storm surge, with areas in eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia reporting severe damage from both winds and the storm surge. Virginia reported that Isabel destroyed more than 1,186 homes and 77 businesses, severely damaged 9,110 homes and 333 businesses, and left 107,908 homes and over 1,000 businesses with minor damage. Several other states reported flooding and strong winds, particularly in central Maryland, where the storm destroyed 472 buildings and dwellings while substantially damaging 3,260 others. Across the United States, Isabel resulted in $5.5 billion in damage and 51 deaths, of which 17 were directly related to the storm's effects. In Canada, the remnants of Isabel left slick roads in Ontario, leading to one indirect death after a truck driver lost control of the vehicle.

Tropical Depression Fourteen

A strong tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on September 6, and almost immediately it became associated with a broad surface circulation. Favorable upper-level winds allowed the system to quickly organize into Tropical Depression Fourteen while located about southeast of the southernmost Cape Verde islands on September 8. However, convection soon decreased and the banding features dissipated. On September 9, the system was not forecast to intensify past minimal tropical storm status, but instead peaked with winds of 35 mph (55 km/h) and a minimum pressure of . and on September 10 the depression dissipated. and due to unfavorable wind shear it initially remained disorganized. An area of convection increased in association with an upper-level low, and it developed into Tropical Depression Fifteen on September 24 to the southeast of Bermuda. It steadily organized as it tracked northward, intensifying into Tropical Storm Juan on September 25 and attaining hurricane status on September 26. It accelerated northward, weakening only slightly before moving ashore near Halifax on September 29 with winds of . It quickly weakened while crossing the southern Canadian Maritimes before being absorbed by a large extratropical cyclone over the Gulf of St. Lawrence. with the local government estimating that approximately 31% of homes suffered damage to some extent. The hurricane produced a record storm surge of , which resulted in extensive flooding of the Halifax and Dartmouth waterfront properties. Strong winds caused widespread occurrences of downed power lines and damaged houses. The depression failed to intensify at first due to wind shear, but it strengthened into Tropical Storm Kate on September 27. Despite the wind shear, Kate developed an eye and attained hurricane status for about 12 hours on September 29. Later that day, Kate weakened, became disorganized, and slowed, curving westward around a mid-level circulation. By October 1, the storm was moving west-southwestward in an area of warmer waters and lighter wind shear and regained hurricane status that day. A well-defined eye developed by October 2. Kate then started weakening as it slowed and turned northward along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. An approaching trough accelerated the northward movement, while also increasing wind shear. The eye re-appeared occasionally on satellite imagery until early on October 7, when Kate moved over cooler waters and weakened to a tropical storm. After passing east of Newfoundland, Kate became extratropical early on October 8. The extratropical remnants reattained hurricane-force winds while passing southeast of Greenland on October 9 and then turned eastward, moving a short distance south of Iceland and later merging with another extratropical storm near Scandinavia on October 10. Kate produced sustained winds of up to at Cape Race, Newfoundland. It generated strong swells and surf along the southern coast of the Avalon Peninsula, reaching heights of . Rainfall in southeastern Newfoundland reached over . St. John's reported on October 6, a record for the date, but not enough to cause flooding. The remnants of Kate produced wind gusts in northern Scotland.

Tropical Storm Larry

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on September 17, and moved across the Atlantic. Wind shear prevented organization until September 26, when the wave moved under an anticyclone in the western Caribbean, and a weak low pressure area developed. The system moved over land on September 29, and a day later emerged into the southern Gulf of Mexico, where the low merged with a stationary frontal boundary. A large high-pressure system over the northern gulf forced the storm southward, causing more thunderstorms to develop. It gradually transitioned into a tropical cyclone, completing the process on October 1, at which time the NHC named it Larry. At that time, the storm was located east-southeast of Tampico, Mexico. Larry strengthened further, reaching peak winds of 65 mph (105 km/h) on October 3. A mid-level ridge forced the storm more to the south-southeast. Larry made landfall at Paraíso, Tabasco, on October 5, with winds of 60 mph (95 km/h). The next day, Larry weakened into a tropical depression and degenerated into a remnant low. The remnants of Larry turned to the southwest, reaching the eastern Pacific on October 7, and dissipating a day later.

Due to the threat of the storm, Mexican officials closed oil and shipping ports along the Bay of Campeche, while opening 75 shelters. Larry caused flooding and mudslides throughout the region due to dropping up to of precipitation at Unión Juárez, Chiapas, and coincided with the landfall in southwestern Mexico of two Pacific tropical cyclones, Nora and Olaf, adding to the impact. The three storms combined damaged over 21,000 homes across the country. Damage was greatest around the Chiapas capital of Tuxtla Gutiérrez, where over 9,000 houses were affected. The rainfall caused mudslides across the country, hospitalizing two individuals in central Hidalgo. Larry also heavily damaged crops and knocked out telephone and electrical services. The remnants of Larry compounded heavy rains that previously fell in El Salvador, killing at least one person, forcing thousands of people to evacuate and damaging or destroying hundreds of homes.

Tropical Storm Mindy

A tropical wave exited the coast of Africa on October 1 and moved westward. On October 8, thunderstorms spread across the Lesser Antilles, and the wave slowly organized. Rainfall reached in Christiansted in Saint Croix, and near Ponce, Puerto Rico. The heavy rains led to flooding, downed trees, and landslides that wrecked two bridges and affected four roads. One car was inundated, and a few houses were flooded. Strong winds left around 29,000 people without power in northeastern Puerto Rico. Damage totaled $50,000.

The disturbance turned northwestward through a weakness in the subtropical ridge, and despite strong wind shear, became Tropical Storm Mindy late on October 10 over eastern Dominican Republic, with winds of 45 mph (75 km/h) and a minimum pressure of . The center passed near the Turks and Caicos Islands on October 11, On October 12, Mindy weakened to a tropical depression, and later turned eastward due to an approaching short-wave trough. Devoid of deep convection, the circulation dissipated on October 14 about south-southwest of Bermuda.

Tropical Storm Nicholas

A tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa on October 9. It developed into a tropical depression on October 13 roughly west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. After the shear diminished, Nicholas developed banding features as its convection organized. The system later crossed the Gulf of Mexico and moved ashore Louisiana on November 5. Odette strengthened, with its minimum pressure decreasing to on December 5 and its winds increasing to 65 mph (100 km/h) on the following day. The storm landfall near Cabo Falso in the Dominican Republic on December 6 after weakening slightly. A day later, Odette entered the Atlantic and became extratropical about north of Hispaniola, and eventually merged with a cold front.

The early stage of Odette and its precursor brought rainfall to Colombia, Costa Rica, Jamaica, Nicaragua, and Panama. Floodwaters washed away at least two bridges and mudslides covered several roads.

Tropical Storm Peter

On December 2, an extratropical cyclone developed in the eastern Atlantic. It moved southward, isolated from the westerlies. Convection developed near the center, and the system organized into a subtropical storm late on December 7, about south-southwest of the Azores. The system moved southwestward over warmer waters, and deep convection continued to organize over the center. Banding features also increased, and the National Hurricane Center declared the system as Tropical Storm Peter on December 9, about northwest of the Cape Verde islands. Initially, the National Hurricane Center did not anticipate strengthening; however, Peter intensified to winds of late on December 9, after an eye feature developed. It turned northward ahead of the same frontal system that absorbed Tropical Storm Odette, and the combination of strong upper-level winds and cooler water temperatures caused quick weakening. By December 10, Peter degenerated into a tropical depression, and after turning northeastward it was absorbed by the cold front the next day. This is the same list used for the 1997 season as no names were retired from that year. Storms were named Larry, Mindy, Nicholas, Odette, and Peter for the first time in 2003.

{| style="width:80%;"

Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fabian
Grace

Henri
Isabel
Juan
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas

Odette
Peter

Retirement

In the spring of 2004, The World Meteorological Organization retired Fabian, Isabel, and Juan from the Atlantic hurricane name lists. They were replaced with Fred, Ida, and Joaquin, respectively, for the 2009 season.

Season effects

This is a table of all of the storms that formed in the 2003 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their name, duration, peak classification and intensities, areas affected, damage, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures are in 2003 USD.